Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 60.5% implied probability to win Florida's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid the D+5 partisan lean. Incumbent Kathy Castor, first elected in 2006, secured 57% in the 2024 general election against Robert Rochford, bolstering her reelection prospects despite the district's rightward shift in the 2024 presidential race where Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin. Castor faces a minor Democratic primary challenge from Juan Arauz, while Republicans feature a crowded field including rematch candidate Rochford ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. Recent Democratic flips in Florida special legislative elections, including a narrow upset in state Senate District 14, have reinforced trader optimism for Democratic turnout in the Tampa Bay area.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
61%
共和党
35%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,182 交易量
61%
共和党
$3,070 交易量
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 60.5% implied probability to win Florida's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid the D+5 partisan lean. Incumbent Kathy Castor, first elected in 2006, secured 57% in the 2024 general election against Robert Rochford, bolstering her reelection prospects despite the district's rightward shift in the 2024 presidential race where Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin. Castor faces a minor Democratic primary challenge from Juan Arauz, while Republicans feature a crowded field including rematch candidate Rochford ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. Recent Democratic flips in Florida special legislative elections, including a narrow upset in state Senate District 14, have reinforced trader optimism for Democratic turnout in the Tampa Bay area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$6,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 60.5% implied probability to win Florida's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid the D+5 partisan lean. Incumbent Kathy Castor, first elected in 2006, secured 57% in the 2024 general election against Robert Rochford, bolstering her reelection prospects despite the district's rightward shift in the 2024 presidential race where Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin. Castor faces a minor Democratic primary challenge from Juan Arauz, while Republicans feature a crowded field including rematch candidate Rochford ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. Recent Democratic flips in Florida special legislative elections, including a narrow upset in state Senate District 14, have reinforced trader optimism for Democratic turnout in the Tampa Bay area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 60.5% implied probability to win Florida's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid the D+5 partisan lean. Incumbent Kathy Castor, first elected in 2006, secured 57% in the 2024 general election against Robert Rochford, bolstering her reelection prospects despite the district's rightward shift in the 2024 presidential race where Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin. Castor faces a minor Democratic primary challenge from Juan Arauz, while Republicans feature a crowded field including rematch candidate Rochford ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. Recent Democratic flips in Florida special legislative elections, including a narrow upset in state Senate District 14, have reinforced trader optimism for Democratic turnout in the Tampa Bay area.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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