Incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement opened New York's 7th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in Brooklyn and Queens with large progressive voter blocs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at over 90% for the November 2026 general election. Recent Democratic primary entrant Vichal Kumar on March 6 and Councilmember Julie Won's official launch on March 10 highlight a crowded June 23 primary field featuring Assemblymember Claire Valdez, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and Velázquez-endorsed contenders, but no comparable Republican momentum has emerged. This implied probability reflects historical lopsided margins and weak GOP performance; shifts could arise from a divisive Democratic nominee, late Republican recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$4,966 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement opened New York's 7th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in Brooklyn and Queens with large progressive voter blocs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at over 90% for the November 2026 general election. Recent Democratic primary entrant Vichal Kumar on March 6 and Councilmember Julie Won's official launch on March 10 highlight a crowded June 23 primary field featuring Assemblymember Claire Valdez, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and Velázquez-endorsed contenders, but no comparable Republican momentum has emerged. This implied probability reflects historical lopsided margins and weak GOP performance; shifts could arise from a divisive Democratic nominee, late Republican recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$4,966结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement opened New York's 7th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in Brooklyn and Queens with large progressive voter blocs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at over 90% for the November 2026 general election. Recent Democratic primary entrant Vichal Kumar on March 6 and Councilmember Julie Won's official launch on March 10 highlight a crowded June 23 primary field featuring Assemblymember Claire Valdez, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and Velázquez-endorsed contenders, but no comparable Republican momentum has emerged. This implied probability reflects historical lopsided margins and weak GOP performance; shifts could arise from a divisive Democratic nominee, late Republican recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,966结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez's November 2025 retirement announcement opened New York's 7th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in Brooklyn and Queens with large progressive voter blocs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at over 90% for the November 2026 general election. Recent Democratic primary entrant Vichal Kumar on March 6 and Councilmember Julie Won's official launch on March 10 highlight a crowded June 23 primary field featuring Assemblymember Claire Valdez, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and Velázquez-endorsed contenders, but no comparable Republican momentum has emerged. This implied probability reflects historical lopsided margins and weak GOP performance; shifts could arise from a divisive Democratic nominee, late Republican recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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