Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,641 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$8,641结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,641结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, a solidly blue seat with a partisan lean of D+27 per Cook PVI ratings, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Moore cruised through her August primary unopposed effectively, facing Republican Oliver Krawczyk, who advanced but lacks competitive fundraising or statewide name recognition. Historical election results show Moore winning by 40+ point margins, with no recent polling or developments—such as scandals, endorsements, or legal challenges—altering this dynamic amid ongoing early voting. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented GOP turnout in Milwaukee, or court rulings on ballot access, though these remain low-probability given the district's entrenched demographics and incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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