Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers with the structural advantages of incumbency and district demographics. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democrat, consistent with Moore’s 74.8 percent share in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing therefore tracks the district’s established voting patterns and limited competitiveness. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually effective Republican turnout operation, though each would require substantial deviation from historical baselines to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,352 交易量
98%
共和党
$21,164 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers with the structural advantages of incumbency and district demographics. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democrat, consistent with Moore’s 74.8 percent share in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing therefore tracks the district’s established voting patterns and limited competitiveness. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually effective Republican turnout operation, though each would require substantial deviation from historical baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$33,516结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers with the structural advantages of incumbency and district demographics. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democrat, consistent with Moore’s 74.8 percent share in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing therefore tracks the district’s established voting patterns and limited competitiveness. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually effective Republican turnout operation, though each would require substantial deviation from historical baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,516结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers with the structural advantages of incumbency and district demographics. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democrat, consistent with Moore’s 74.8 percent share in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing therefore tracks the district’s established voting patterns and limited competitiveness. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually effective Republican turnout operation, though each would require substantial deviation from historical baselines to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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