Incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore's commanding position in deep-blue Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, with a D+29 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 election. Moore, seeking her 11th term since 2004, faces Republican challenger Chris Nitschke, who trails significantly in limited polling like Emerson's 64-22% spread and lags in fundraising. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the district's reliable Democratic performance in past cycles. Scenarios challenging this include a late GOP national wave lifting turnout or unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for such upsets in safe seats remain low. Early voting begins October 29.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,246 交易量
$13,246 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$13,246 交易量
$13,246 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$4,605 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,641 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore's commanding position in deep-blue Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, with a D+29 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 election. Moore, seeking her 11th term since 2004, faces Republican challenger Chris Nitschke, who trails significantly in limited polling like Emerson's 64-22% spread and lags in fundraising. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the district's reliable Democratic performance in past cycles. Scenarios challenging this include a late GOP national wave lifting turnout or unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for such upsets in safe seats remain low. Early voting begins October 29.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$13,246结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore's commanding position in deep-blue Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, with a D+29 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 election. Moore, seeking her 11th term since 2004, faces Republican challenger Chris Nitschke, who trails significantly in limited polling like Emerson's 64-22% spread and lags in fundraising. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the district's reliable Democratic performance in past cycles. Scenarios challenging this include a late GOP national wave lifting turnout or unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for such upsets in safe seats remain low. Early voting begins October 29.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,246结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore's commanding position in deep-blue Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, with a D+29 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus at 92.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 5 election. Moore, seeking her 11th term since 2004, faces Republican challenger Chris Nitschke, who trails significantly in limited polling like Emerson's 64-22% spread and lags in fundraising. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the district's reliable Democratic performance in past cycles. Scenarios challenging this include a late GOP national wave lifting turnout or unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for such upsets in safe seats remain low. Early voting begins October 29.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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