Polls from early March, including Ipsos and Lord Ashcroft surveys, show the Scottish National Party leading the constituency vote by 16-25 points at 36-39%, with Reform UK second at 14-17% and Labour trailing at 12-20%, reinforcing trader consensus implying over 96% probability of SNP securing the most seats under Holyrood's additional member system on May 7. Opposition fragmentation—Reform's list strength but weak constituencies, Labour and Conservatives in double digits—positions SNP for 60+ seats per projections, despite vote share below 2021 levels. Campaigns launched last week amid stable independence support near 43% Yes. Late-breaking scandals, a surge in tactical anti-SNP voting, or polling misses could challenge this, though historical trends favor incumbents in fragmented fields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于苏格兰议会选举获胜者
苏格兰议会选举获胜者
苏格兰民族党 96.4%
改革英国党 1.9%
苏格兰自由民主党 <1%
苏格兰工党 <1%
$1,581,097 交易量
$1,581,097 交易量
May 7, 2026
苏格兰民族党
96%
改革英国党
2%
苏格兰自由民主党
<1%
苏格兰工党
<1%
苏格兰绿党
<1%
苏维权党
<1%
苏格兰保守党
<1%
阿尔巴党
<1%
苏格兰民族党 96.4%
改革英国党 1.9%
苏格兰自由民主党 <1%
苏格兰工党 <1%
$1,581,097 交易量
$1,581,097 交易量
May 7, 2026
苏格兰民族党
$1,296,266 交易量
96%
改革英国党
$79,946 交易量
2%
苏格兰自由民主党
$102,934 交易量
<1%
苏格兰工党
$40,522 交易量
<1%
苏格兰绿党
$35,980 交易量
<1%
苏维权党
$4,208 交易量
<1%
苏格兰保守党
$4,976 交易量
<1%
阿尔巴党
$16,265 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polls from early March, including Ipsos and Lord Ashcroft surveys, show the Scottish National Party leading the constituency vote by 16-25 points at 36-39%, with Reform UK second at 14-17% and Labour trailing at 12-20%, reinforcing trader consensus implying over 96% probability of SNP securing the most seats under Holyrood's additional member system on May 7. Opposition fragmentation—Reform's list strength but weak constituencies, Labour and Conservatives in double digits—positions SNP for 60+ seats per projections, despite vote share below 2021 levels. Campaigns launched last week amid stable independence support near 43% Yes. Late-breaking scandals, a surge in tactical anti-SNP voting, or polling misses could challenge this, though historical trends favor incumbents in fragmented fields.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,581,097结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polls from early March, including Ipsos and Lord Ashcroft surveys, show the Scottish National Party leading the constituency vote by 16-25 points at 36-39%, with Reform UK second at 14-17% and Labour trailing at 12-20%, reinforcing trader consensus implying over 96% probability of SNP securing the most seats under Holyrood's additional member system on May 7. Opposition fragmentation—Reform's list strength but weak constituencies, Labour and Conservatives in double digits—positions SNP for 60+ seats per projections, despite vote share below 2021 levels. Campaigns launched last week amid stable independence support near 43% Yes. Late-breaking scandals, a surge in tactical anti-SNP voting, or polling misses could challenge this, though historical trends favor incumbents in fragmented fields.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
交易量
$1,581,097结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polls from early March, including Ipsos and Lord Ashcroft surveys, show the Scottish National Party leading the constituency vote by 16-25 points at 36-39%, with Reform UK second at 14-17% and Labour trailing at 12-20%, reinforcing trader consensus implying over 96% probability of SNP securing the most seats under Holyrood's additional member system on May 7. Opposition fragmentation—Reform's list strength but weak constituencies, Labour and Conservatives in double digits—positions SNP for 60+ seats per projections, despite vote share below 2021 levels. Campaigns launched last week amid stable independence support near 43% Yes. Late-breaking scandals, a surge in tactical anti-SNP voting, or polling misses could challenge this, though historical trends favor incumbents in fragmented fields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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