Nancy Pelosi’s retirement from the safely Democratic San Francisco Bay Area district has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary dominated by multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, Saikat Chakrabarti, and Supervisor Connie Chan, while Republican candidates have secured minimal fundraising or party infrastructure. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and historical turnout patterns in the district make a general-election Republican victory structurally improbable. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent, reflecting these entrenched advantages. A Republican win would require an unprecedented primary breakthrough by GOP candidates or a sharp reversal in district turnout dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,127 交易量
95%
共和党
$701 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nancy Pelosi’s retirement from the safely Democratic San Francisco Bay Area district has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary dominated by multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, Saikat Chakrabarti, and Supervisor Connie Chan, while Republican candidates have secured minimal fundraising or party infrastructure. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and historical turnout patterns in the district make a general-election Republican victory structurally improbable. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent, reflecting these entrenched advantages. A Republican win would require an unprecedented primary breakthrough by GOP candidates or a sharp reversal in district turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$3,828结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nancy Pelosi’s retirement from the safely Democratic San Francisco Bay Area district has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary dominated by multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, Saikat Chakrabarti, and Supervisor Connie Chan, while Republican candidates have secured minimal fundraising or party infrastructure. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and historical turnout patterns in the district make a general-election Republican victory structurally improbable. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent, reflecting these entrenched advantages. A Republican win would require an unprecedented primary breakthrough by GOP candidates or a sharp reversal in district turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,828结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nancy Pelosi’s retirement from the safely Democratic San Francisco Bay Area district has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary dominated by multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, Saikat Chakrabarti, and Supervisor Connie Chan, while Republican candidates have secured minimal fundraising or party infrastructure. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and historical turnout patterns in the district make a general-election Republican victory structurally improbable. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent, reflecting these entrenched advantages. A Republican win would require an unprecedented primary breakthrough by GOP candidates or a sharp reversal in district turnout dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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