California's 11th Congressional District, a San Francisco liberal stronghold long represented by retired Speaker Nancy Pelosi—who won by 84% in 2022—drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic House election winner amid the June 2 top-two primary featuring nine Democrats including Saikat Chakrabarti, Connie Chan, and Scott Wiener against one Republican. The district's strong partisan lean, urban progressive voter base, and historical Democratic dominance explain the commanding odds, reinforced by recent candidate forums debating local issues without signaling GOP viability. With top-two advancing to the November general—likely pitting Democrats—the Republican path requires a primary upset, national midterm wave, major scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th Congressional District, a San Francisco liberal stronghold long represented by retired Speaker Nancy Pelosi—who won by 84% in 2022—drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic House election winner amid the June 2 top-two primary featuring nine Democrats including Saikat Chakrabarti, Connie Chan, and Scott Wiener against one Republican. The district's strong partisan lean, urban progressive voter base, and historical Democratic dominance explain the commanding odds, reinforced by recent candidate forums debating local issues without signaling GOP viability. With top-two advancing to the November general—likely pitting Democrats—the Republican path requires a primary upset, national midterm wave, major scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th Congressional District, a San Francisco liberal stronghold long represented by retired Speaker Nancy Pelosi—who won by 84% in 2022—drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic House election winner amid the June 2 top-two primary featuring nine Democrats including Saikat Chakrabarti, Connie Chan, and Scott Wiener against one Republican. The district's strong partisan lean, urban progressive voter base, and historical Democratic dominance explain the commanding odds, reinforced by recent candidate forums debating local issues without signaling GOP viability. With top-two advancing to the November general—likely pitting Democrats—the Republican path requires a primary upset, national midterm wave, major scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th Congressional District, a San Francisco liberal stronghold long represented by retired Speaker Nancy Pelosi—who won by 84% in 2022—drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic House election winner amid the June 2 top-two primary featuring nine Democrats including Saikat Chakrabarti, Connie Chan, and Scott Wiener against one Republican. The district's strong partisan lean, urban progressive voter base, and historical Democratic dominance explain the commanding odds, reinforced by recent candidate forums debating local issues without signaling GOP viability. With top-two advancing to the November general—likely pitting Democrats—the Republican path requires a primary upset, national midterm wave, major scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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