Wyoming's at-large congressional district race opened in December 2025 when incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman announced her U.S. Senate bid, yet traders price Republicans at 91% implied probability to hold the seat on November 3, 2026, anchored in the state's deep-red status—GOP voter registration exceeds 70%, and no Democrat has won here since 1976 amid consistent 40+ point Republican margins. The Democratic primary features sole announced candidate Gabriel Green, a Casper native pushing election reform, facing steep incumbency-like advantages for the eventual GOP nominee. A crowded Republican primary, including ex-Superintendent Jillian Balow and self-funding businessman Reid Rasner, heads to the August 18 primaries. Upsets would require GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or unprecedented national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,033 交易量
91%
民主党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large congressional district race opened in December 2025 when incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman announced her U.S. Senate bid, yet traders price Republicans at 91% implied probability to hold the seat on November 3, 2026, anchored in the state's deep-red status—GOP voter registration exceeds 70%, and no Democrat has won here since 1976 amid consistent 40+ point Republican margins. The Democratic primary features sole announced candidate Gabriel Green, a Casper native pushing election reform, facing steep incumbency-like advantages for the eventual GOP nominee. A crowded Republican primary, including ex-Superintendent Jillian Balow and self-funding businessman Reid Rasner, heads to the August 18 primaries. Upsets would require GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or unprecedented national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$4,033结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large congressional district race opened in December 2025 when incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman announced her U.S. Senate bid, yet traders price Republicans at 91% implied probability to hold the seat on November 3, 2026, anchored in the state's deep-red status—GOP voter registration exceeds 70%, and no Democrat has won here since 1976 amid consistent 40+ point Republican margins. The Democratic primary features sole announced candidate Gabriel Green, a Casper native pushing election reform, facing steep incumbency-like advantages for the eventual GOP nominee. A crowded Republican primary, including ex-Superintendent Jillian Balow and self-funding businessman Reid Rasner, heads to the August 18 primaries. Upsets would require GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or unprecedented national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,033结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's at-large congressional district race opened in December 2025 when incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman announced her U.S. Senate bid, yet traders price Republicans at 91% implied probability to hold the seat on November 3, 2026, anchored in the state's deep-red status—GOP voter registration exceeds 70%, and no Democrat has won here since 1976 amid consistent 40+ point Republican margins. The Democratic primary features sole announced candidate Gabriel Green, a Casper native pushing election reform, facing steep incumbency-like advantages for the eventual GOP nominee. A crowded Republican primary, including ex-Superintendent Jillian Balow and self-funding businessman Reid Rasner, heads to the August 18 primaries. Upsets would require GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or unprecedented national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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