The Silicon Valley-based California 16th district's consistent Democratic performance, including the incumbent's 58 percent victory in the 2024 general election under the state's top-two primary system, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting and voter registration patterns have reinforced this lean, with limited Republican infrastructure or recent competitive showings. The upcoming June 2026 primary and November general remain the key scheduled events, though no major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged in recent months. A significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unanticipated national political realignment would be required to meaningfully elevate Republican chances above current low-single-digit implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$76,170 交易量
$76,170 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$76,170 交易量
$76,170 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$48,949 交易量
93%
共和党
$27,220 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Silicon Valley-based California 16th district's consistent Democratic performance, including the incumbent's 58 percent victory in the 2024 general election under the state's top-two primary system, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting and voter registration patterns have reinforced this lean, with limited Republican infrastructure or recent competitive showings. The upcoming June 2026 primary and November general remain the key scheduled events, though no major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged in recent months. A significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unanticipated national political realignment would be required to meaningfully elevate Republican chances above current low-single-digit implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$76,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Silicon Valley-based California 16th district's consistent Democratic performance, including the incumbent's 58 percent victory in the 2024 general election under the state's top-two primary system, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting and voter registration patterns have reinforced this lean, with limited Republican infrastructure or recent competitive showings. The upcoming June 2026 primary and November general remain the key scheduled events, though no major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged in recent months. A significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unanticipated national political realignment would be required to meaningfully elevate Republican chances above current low-single-digit implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$76,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Silicon Valley-based California 16th district's consistent Democratic performance, including the incumbent's 58 percent victory in the 2024 general election under the state's top-two primary system, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting and voter registration patterns have reinforced this lean, with limited Republican infrastructure or recent competitive showings. The upcoming June 2026 primary and November general remain the key scheduled events, though no major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged in recent months. A significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unanticipated national political realignment would be required to meaningfully elevate Republican chances above current low-single-digit implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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