Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$0 交易量
91%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in the NJ-01 House race, reflecting the district's strong D+10 Cook PVI lean, consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Norcross's dominant history including a 57.8% 2024 win. Recent AFSCME New Jersey Council 63 endorsement on March 23—backing the labor caucus chair with 20,000 public workers—plus nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, solidify his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where he faces token Democratic opposition and Republican Damon Galdo, a perennial primary loser. Upsets remain possible via Norcross scandal, GOP late recruit, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers favor Democratic retention on November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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