The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November general election. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring Third District, creating an open seat now contested by several Democratic primary candidates including former state Senator Richard Pan, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. Representative Kevin Kiley, who switched to independent status after representing the Third District, provides the main opposition but faces structural headwinds in a seat with heavy Democratic voter registration and historical performance. Recent primary polling shows Democratic contenders holding clear leads ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout or major candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could alter the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,440 交易量
$12,440 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$12,440 交易量
$12,440 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,571 交易量
92%
共和党
$5,869 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November general election. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring Third District, creating an open seat now contested by several Democratic primary candidates including former state Senator Richard Pan, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. Representative Kevin Kiley, who switched to independent status after representing the Third District, provides the main opposition but faces structural headwinds in a seat with heavy Democratic voter registration and historical performance. Recent primary polling shows Democratic contenders holding clear leads ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout or major candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$12,440结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November general election. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring Third District, creating an open seat now contested by several Democratic primary candidates including former state Senator Richard Pan, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. Representative Kevin Kiley, who switched to independent status after representing the Third District, provides the main opposition but faces structural headwinds in a seat with heavy Democratic voter registration and historical performance. Recent primary polling shows Democratic contenders holding clear leads ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout or major candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,440结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November general election. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring Third District, creating an open seat now contested by several Democratic primary candidates including former state Senator Richard Pan, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. Representative Kevin Kiley, who switched to independent status after representing the Third District, provides the main opposition but faces structural headwinds in a seat with heavy Democratic voter registration and historical performance. Recent primary polling shows Democratic contenders holding clear leads ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout or major candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could alter the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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