Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$5,614 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,614结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,614结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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