U.S. Rep. Barry Moore dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the Alabama Republican Senate primary, driven by his early campaign launch, strong fundraising exceeding $1 million in initial reports, and alignment with Trump-aligned conservatism that resonates in GOP base polls. Recent developments include Moore's aggressive ad buys and endorsements from influential state party figures, solidifying his frontrunner status ahead of the March 2026 primary. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall trails at 10% amid signals he may focus on his own re-election bid rather than challenging, while Jared Hudson's 4% reflects limited name recognition as a political newcomer. Low-volume trading on others like Morgan Murphy and Rodney Walker underscores their outsider positioning, though shifts could arise from Tuberville's re-election clarity or late entrant endorsements.