Recent polling shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in this closely fought contest, with surveys from Opinium, Survation and others placing Burnham around 46% to Kenyon's 41% among likely voters. The by-election, scheduled for 18 June following the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, features 14 candidates but has narrowed to a primary contest between these two, with smaller parties and independents splitting the remainder. Voter discontent over local economic pressures, immigration and crime has boosted Reform's position in this former Labour stronghold, while Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor provides personal appeal that may consolidate support. Fragmented opposition votes and turnout patterns among different demographics could determine whether the final margin falls into the tighter bands or widens for the leader.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Burnham 9%+ 33%
Burnham 6-9% 19%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 12%
$28,580 交易量
$28,580 交易量
Burnham 9%+
35%
Burnham 6-9%
19%
Burnham 3-6%
13%
Burnham <3%
9%
Kenyon <3%
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
6%
Kenyon 6%+
4%
Other
3%
Burnham 9%+ 33%
Burnham 6-9% 19%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 12%
$28,580 交易量
$28,580 交易量
Burnham 9%+
$5,811 交易量
35%
Burnham 6-9%
$3,138 交易量
19%
Burnham 3-6%
$3,137 交易量
13%
Burnham <3%
$3,596 交易量
9%
Kenyon <3%
$2,773 交易量
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
$2,382 交易量
6%
Kenyon 6%+
$3,354 交易量
4%
Other
$4,388 交易量
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in this closely fought contest, with surveys from Opinium, Survation and others placing Burnham around 46% to Kenyon's 41% among likely voters. The by-election, scheduled for 18 June following the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, features 14 candidates but has narrowed to a primary contest between these two, with smaller parties and independents splitting the remainder. Voter discontent over local economic pressures, immigration and crime has boosted Reform's position in this former Labour stronghold, while Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor provides personal appeal that may consolidate support. Fragmented opposition votes and turnout patterns among different demographics could determine whether the final margin falls into the tighter bands or widens for the leader.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
交易量
$28,580市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in this closely fought contest, with surveys from Opinium, Survation and others placing Burnham around 46% to Kenyon's 41% among likely voters. The by-election, scheduled for 18 June following the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, features 14 candidates but has narrowed to a primary contest between these two, with smaller parties and independents splitting the remainder. Voter discontent over local economic pressures, immigration and crime has boosted Reform's position in this former Labour stronghold, while Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor provides personal appeal that may consolidate support. Fragmented opposition votes and turnout patterns among different demographics could determine whether the final margin falls into the tighter bands or widens for the leader.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$28,580市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Labour's Andy Burnham holding a narrow lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in this closely fought contest, with surveys from Opinium, Survation and others placing Burnham around 46% to Kenyon's 41% among likely voters. The by-election, scheduled for 18 June following the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, features 14 candidates but has narrowed to a primary contest between these two, with smaller parties and independents splitting the remainder. Voter discontent over local economic pressures, immigration and crime has boosted Reform's position in this former Labour stronghold, while Burnham's profile as Greater Manchester mayor provides personal appeal that may consolidate support. Fragmented opposition votes and turnout patterns among different demographics could determine whether the final margin falls into the tighter bands or widens for the leader.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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