Trump’s endorsement of Navy SEAL and farmer Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million from aligned super PACs, powered Gallrein’s May 19 primary victory over seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly 10 points (55-45). Strong performance in northern Kentucky population centers and Oldham County produced the decisive margin reflected in live and unofficial tallies. Trader consensus for a Gallrein 9%+ outcome rests on these verified results and Massie’s concession. Only an official recount or certification reversal could alter the margin category, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed a few tenths of a point in congressional primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加尔雷恩9%+ 98.6%
加尔雷恩 6-9% 1.0%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,702 交易量
$192,702 交易量
2026-05-19
加尔雷恩9%+
99%
加尔雷恩 6-9%
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
<1%
Gallrein <3%
<1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
加尔雷恩9%+ 98.6%
加尔雷恩 6-9% 1.0%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,702 交易量
$192,702 交易量
2026-05-19
加尔雷恩9%+
$124,567 交易量
99%
加尔雷恩 6-9%
$11,886 交易量
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$7,628 交易量
<1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,574 交易量
<1%
Massie <3%
$9,852 交易量
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$18,270 交易量
<1%
Massie 6%+
$13,866 交易量
<1%
Other
$1,089 交易量
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trump’s endorsement of Navy SEAL and farmer Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million from aligned super PACs, powered Gallrein’s May 19 primary victory over seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly 10 points (55-45). Strong performance in northern Kentucky population centers and Oldham County produced the decisive margin reflected in live and unofficial tallies. Trader consensus for a Gallrein 9%+ outcome rests on these verified results and Massie’s concession. Only an official recount or certification reversal could alter the margin category, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed a few tenths of a point in congressional primaries.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
交易量
$192,702结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trump’s endorsement of Navy SEAL and farmer Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million from aligned super PACs, powered Gallrein’s May 19 primary victory over seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly 10 points (55-45). Strong performance in northern Kentucky population centers and Oldham County produced the decisive margin reflected in live and unofficial tallies. Trader consensus for a Gallrein 9%+ outcome rests on these verified results and Massie’s concession. Only an official recount or certification reversal could alter the margin category, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed a few tenths of a point in congressional primaries.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$192,702结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trump’s endorsement of Navy SEAL and farmer Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million from aligned super PACs, powered Gallrein’s May 19 primary victory over seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly 10 points (55-45). Strong performance in northern Kentucky population centers and Oldham County produced the decisive margin reflected in live and unofficial tallies. Trader consensus for a Gallrein 9%+ outcome rests on these verified results and Massie’s concession. Only an official recount or certification reversal could alter the margin category, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed a few tenths of a point in congressional primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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