Thomas Massie leads Polymarket odds for the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary at 63% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1.5 million, and consistent polling leads of 20-30 points in recent surveys from Trafalgar and others. Challenger Ed Gallrein trails at 36.6%, bolstered by conservative endorsements and grassroots momentum criticizing Massie's votes against Trump-backed aid packages, though his fundraising lags at under $300,000. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. hold negligible shares amid low visibility. Recent catalysts include Massie's March campaign finance report showing cash reserves dominance and Gallrein's April debate push, with the May 21 primary poised to test voter turnout in this safely Republican district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于托马斯·马西 63%
艾德·加尔雷恩 36.6%
妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%
罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%
$119,313 交易量
$119,313 交易量
May 19, 2026
托马斯·马西
63%
艾德·加尔雷恩
37%
妮可·李·艾辛顿
<1%
罗伯特·威尔斯二世
<1%
托马斯·马西 63%
艾德·加尔雷恩 36.6%
妮可·李·艾辛顿 <1%
罗伯特·威尔斯二世 <1%
$119,313 交易量
$119,313 交易量
May 19, 2026
托马斯·马西
$87,147 交易量
63%
艾德·加尔雷恩
$32,166 交易量
37%
妮可·李·艾辛顿
$0 交易量
<1%
罗伯特·威尔斯二世
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
交易量
$119,313结束日期
May 19, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$119,313结束日期
May 19, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Thomas Massie leads Polymarket odds for the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary at 63% implied probability, driven by his incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1.5 million, and consistent polling leads of 20-30 points in recent surveys from Trafalgar and others. Challenger Ed Gallrein trails at 36.6%, bolstered by conservative endorsements and grassroots momentum criticizing Massie's votes against Trump-backed aid packages, though his fundraising lags at under $300,000. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. hold negligible shares amid low visibility. Recent catalysts include Massie's March campaign finance report showing cash reserves dominance and Gallrein's April debate push, with the May 21 primary poised to test voter turnout in this safely Republican district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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