Incumbent Democrat Ro Khanna's commanding fundraising lead, with over $15 million cash on hand, bolsters trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 95% implied probability to win California's 17th Congressional District, a D+21 stronghold in Silicon Valley. Recent entry of primary challenger Ethan Agarwal in early March, criticizing Khanna's stock trading disclosures and billionaire tax support, has failed to shift market odds amid the district's deep-blue history and top-two primary dynamics set for June 2. Republicans trail at 3%, reflecting no credible GOP contender or path to victory in this safe seat. Scenarios like a Khanna scandal, health event, or national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical incumbency rates suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$5,805 交易量
95%
共和党
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ro Khanna's commanding fundraising lead, with over $15 million cash on hand, bolsters trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 95% implied probability to win California's 17th Congressional District, a D+21 stronghold in Silicon Valley. Recent entry of primary challenger Ethan Agarwal in early March, criticizing Khanna's stock trading disclosures and billionaire tax support, has failed to shift market odds amid the district's deep-blue history and top-two primary dynamics set for June 2. Republicans trail at 3%, reflecting no credible GOP contender or path to victory in this safe seat. Scenarios like a Khanna scandal, health event, or national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical incumbency rates suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$5,805结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ro Khanna's commanding fundraising lead, with over $15 million cash on hand, bolsters trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 95% implied probability to win California's 17th Congressional District, a D+21 stronghold in Silicon Valley. Recent entry of primary challenger Ethan Agarwal in early March, criticizing Khanna's stock trading disclosures and billionaire tax support, has failed to shift market odds amid the district's deep-blue history and top-two primary dynamics set for June 2. Republicans trail at 3%, reflecting no credible GOP contender or path to victory in this safe seat. Scenarios like a Khanna scandal, health event, or national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical incumbency rates suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,805结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ro Khanna's commanding fundraising lead, with over $15 million cash on hand, bolsters trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 95% implied probability to win California's 17th Congressional District, a D+21 stronghold in Silicon Valley. Recent entry of primary challenger Ethan Agarwal in early March, criticizing Khanna's stock trading disclosures and billionaire tax support, has failed to shift market odds amid the district's deep-blue history and top-two primary dynamics set for June 2. Republicans trail at 3%, reflecting no credible GOP contender or path to victory in this safe seat. Scenarios like a Khanna scandal, health event, or national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical incumbency rates suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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