Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 95.4% implied probability of victory in California's 17th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+21 partisan lean and incumbent Ro Khanna's dominant fundraising with over $15 million cash-on-hand. This Silicon Valley stronghold, encompassing Fremont and diverse tech-heavy suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic landslides, reinforced by voter-approved redistricting in November 2025 that preserved its blue tilt. A March 3 primary challenge from tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal, fueled by debates over wealth taxes and stock trading disclosures, underscores intra-party friction but leaves Republicans at 3.1% amid weak contender prospects. The June 2 top-two primary could test Khanna, though scenarios like a national Republican wave, major Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or legal developments would be needed to shift odds significantly ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$5,805 交易量
95%
共和党
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 95.4% implied probability of victory in California's 17th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+21 partisan lean and incumbent Ro Khanna's dominant fundraising with over $15 million cash-on-hand. This Silicon Valley stronghold, encompassing Fremont and diverse tech-heavy suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic landslides, reinforced by voter-approved redistricting in November 2025 that preserved its blue tilt. A March 3 primary challenge from tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal, fueled by debates over wealth taxes and stock trading disclosures, underscores intra-party friction but leaves Republicans at 3.1% amid weak contender prospects. The June 2 top-two primary could test Khanna, though scenarios like a national Republican wave, major Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or legal developments would be needed to shift odds significantly ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$5,805结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 95.4% implied probability of victory in California's 17th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+21 partisan lean and incumbent Ro Khanna's dominant fundraising with over $15 million cash-on-hand. This Silicon Valley stronghold, encompassing Fremont and diverse tech-heavy suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic landslides, reinforced by voter-approved redistricting in November 2025 that preserved its blue tilt. A March 3 primary challenge from tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal, fueled by debates over wealth taxes and stock trading disclosures, underscores intra-party friction but leaves Republicans at 3.1% amid weak contender prospects. The June 2 top-two primary could test Khanna, though scenarios like a national Republican wave, major Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or legal developments would be needed to shift odds significantly ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,805结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 95.4% implied probability of victory in California's 17th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+21 partisan lean and incumbent Ro Khanna's dominant fundraising with over $15 million cash-on-hand. This Silicon Valley stronghold, encompassing Fremont and diverse tech-heavy suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic landslides, reinforced by voter-approved redistricting in November 2025 that preserved its blue tilt. A March 3 primary challenge from tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal, fueled by debates over wealth taxes and stock trading disclosures, underscores intra-party friction but leaves Republicans at 3.1% amid weak contender prospects. The June 2 top-two primary could test Khanna, though scenarios like a national Republican wave, major Democratic scandal, nominee health issues, or legal developments would be needed to shift odds significantly ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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