Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability for the AZ-09 House seat, driven by the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index—ranking it among the nation's most Republican-leaning—and incumbent Paul Gosar's commanding reelection history, including a 65% victory margin over Democrat Quacy Smith in 2024 and near-unopposed 97.8% in 2022. With the March 23 filing deadline passed, Gosar faces only a token Republican primary challenge from Teresa Volesky on July 21, while Democrats pit Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, who trail in fundraising (Gosar holds $156K cash-on-hand vs. Sterbinsky's $68K). Solid R ratings from Cook Political Report and Safe R from Sabato's Crystal Ball as of late March reflect enduring GOP dominance in this rural western Arizona district, absent any recruitment breakthroughs or national wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
88%
民主党
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$512 交易量
88%
民主党
$779 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability for the AZ-09 House seat, driven by the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index—ranking it among the nation's most Republican-leaning—and incumbent Paul Gosar's commanding reelection history, including a 65% victory margin over Democrat Quacy Smith in 2024 and near-unopposed 97.8% in 2022. With the March 23 filing deadline passed, Gosar faces only a token Republican primary challenge from Teresa Volesky on July 21, while Democrats pit Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, who trail in fundraising (Gosar holds $156K cash-on-hand vs. Sterbinsky's $68K). Solid R ratings from Cook Political Report and Safe R from Sabato's Crystal Ball as of late March reflect enduring GOP dominance in this rural western Arizona district, absent any recruitment breakthroughs or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$1,291结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability for the AZ-09 House seat, driven by the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index—ranking it among the nation's most Republican-leaning—and incumbent Paul Gosar's commanding reelection history, including a 65% victory margin over Democrat Quacy Smith in 2024 and near-unopposed 97.8% in 2022. With the March 23 filing deadline passed, Gosar faces only a token Republican primary challenge from Teresa Volesky on July 21, while Democrats pit Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, who trail in fundraising (Gosar holds $156K cash-on-hand vs. Sterbinsky's $68K). Solid R ratings from Cook Political Report and Safe R from Sabato's Crystal Ball as of late March reflect enduring GOP dominance in this rural western Arizona district, absent any recruitment breakthroughs or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,291结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability for the AZ-09 House seat, driven by the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index—ranking it among the nation's most Republican-leaning—and incumbent Paul Gosar's commanding reelection history, including a 65% victory margin over Democrat Quacy Smith in 2024 and near-unopposed 97.8% in 2022. With the March 23 filing deadline passed, Gosar faces only a token Republican primary challenge from Teresa Volesky on July 21, while Democrats pit Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, who trail in fundraising (Gosar holds $156K cash-on-hand vs. Sterbinsky's $68K). Solid R ratings from Cook Political Report and Safe R from Sabato's Crystal Ball as of late March reflect enduring GOP dominance in this rural western Arizona district, absent any recruitment breakthroughs or national wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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