Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong position in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for a Republican winner ahead of the May 16 partisan primary and November 3 general election. Scalise, who won 66.8% in 2024, faces only nominal Republican primary challenger Randall Arrington, while Democrats Lauren Jewett and Jim Long compete in their primary with no signs of competitive polling or fundraising breakthroughs. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since February qualifying, reinforcing the district's historical Republican dominance. Scenarios like a Scalise scandal, health issues, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$22,731 交易量
$22,731 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$22,731 交易量
$22,731 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$11,683 交易量
93%
民主党
$11,047 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong position in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for a Republican winner ahead of the May 16 partisan primary and November 3 general election. Scalise, who won 66.8% in 2024, faces only nominal Republican primary challenger Randall Arrington, while Democrats Lauren Jewett and Jim Long compete in their primary with no signs of competitive polling or fundraising breakthroughs. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since February qualifying, reinforcing the district's historical Republican dominance. Scenarios like a Scalise scandal, health issues, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$22,731结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong position in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for a Republican winner ahead of the May 16 partisan primary and November 3 general election. Scalise, who won 66.8% in 2024, faces only nominal Republican primary challenger Randall Arrington, while Democrats Lauren Jewett and Jim Long compete in their primary with no signs of competitive polling or fundraising breakthroughs. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since February qualifying, reinforcing the district's historical Republican dominance. Scenarios like a Scalise scandal, health issues, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,731结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong position in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for a Republican winner ahead of the May 16 partisan primary and November 3 general election. Scalise, who won 66.8% in 2024, faces only nominal Republican primary challenger Randall Arrington, while Democrats Lauren Jewett and Jim Long compete in their primary with no signs of competitive polling or fundraising breakthroughs. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since February qualifying, reinforcing the district's historical Republican dominance. Scenarios like a Scalise scandal, health issues, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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