Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 92.5% to win Louisiana's 1st congressional district House seat, anchored by incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's re-election bid in a solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+19, 68% Republican in 2024 presidential vote). Scalise, with $5.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces token primary challenge from Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary, echoing his 67% 2024 victory margin amid weak Democratic fundraising. Democrats pit Lauren Jewett against Jim Long in their primary, but historical GOP dominance and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a Scalise primary upset, major scandal, or unprecedented national wave election shifting battleground dynamics before the November 3 general.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$20,913 交易量
$20,913 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$20,913 交易量
$20,913 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$10,883 交易量
93%
民主党
$10,030 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 92.5% to win Louisiana's 1st congressional district House seat, anchored by incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's re-election bid in a solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+19, 68% Republican in 2024 presidential vote). Scalise, with $5.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces token primary challenge from Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary, echoing his 67% 2024 victory margin amid weak Democratic fundraising. Democrats pit Lauren Jewett against Jim Long in their primary, but historical GOP dominance and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a Scalise primary upset, major scandal, or unprecedented national wave election shifting battleground dynamics before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$20,913结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 92.5% to win Louisiana's 1st congressional district House seat, anchored by incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's re-election bid in a solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+19, 68% Republican in 2024 presidential vote). Scalise, with $5.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces token primary challenge from Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary, echoing his 67% 2024 victory margin amid weak Democratic fundraising. Democrats pit Lauren Jewett against Jim Long in their primary, but historical GOP dominance and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a Scalise primary upset, major scandal, or unprecedented national wave election shifting battleground dynamics before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,913结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 92.5% to win Louisiana's 1st congressional district House seat, anchored by incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's re-election bid in a solidly Republican district (Cook PVI R+19, 68% Republican in 2024 presidential vote). Scalise, with $5.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces token primary challenge from Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary, echoing his 67% 2024 victory margin amid weak Democratic fundraising. Democrats pit Lauren Jewett against Jim Long in their primary, but historical GOP dominance and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a Scalise primary upset, major scandal, or unprecedented national wave election shifting battleground dynamics before the November 3 general.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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