Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's strong D+13 Cook PVI, his substantial $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and historical reelection margins exceeding 20 points. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball, CT-04 features weak Republican primary challengers Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi with no reported fundraising, alongside minor independent bids. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted sentiment; upcoming filing deadline (June 9) and primaries (August 11) precede the November general. Scenarios like a Himes withdrawal, personal scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could challenge this lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$17,555 交易量
$17,555 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$17,555 交易量
$17,555 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$11,103 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,453 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's strong D+13 Cook PVI, his substantial $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and historical reelection margins exceeding 20 points. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball, CT-04 features weak Republican primary challengers Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi with no reported fundraising, alongside minor independent bids. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted sentiment; upcoming filing deadline (June 9) and primaries (August 11) precede the November general. Scenarios like a Himes withdrawal, personal scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could challenge this lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$17,555结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's strong D+13 Cook PVI, his substantial $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and historical reelection margins exceeding 20 points. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball, CT-04 features weak Republican primary challengers Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi with no reported fundraising, alongside minor independent bids. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted sentiment; upcoming filing deadline (June 9) and primaries (August 11) precede the November general. Scenarios like a Himes withdrawal, personal scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could challenge this lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,555结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's strong D+13 Cook PVI, his substantial $2.2 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, and historical reelection margins exceeding 20 points. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball, CT-04 features weak Republican primary challengers Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi with no reported fundraising, alongside minor independent bids. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted sentiment; upcoming filing deadline (June 9) and primaries (August 11) precede the November general. Scenarios like a Himes withdrawal, personal scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could challenge this lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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