In Michigan's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+18, incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% stems from consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting historical incumbency advantages and strong GOP performance in past cycles, including Trump's 2020 margin exceeding 20 points. No recent polling, scandals, or campaign shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with Democrat Jessica Swartz trailing significantly. While unforeseen late developments like health issues or legal surprises could theoretically narrow odds, the district's electoral math and lack of competitive dynamics make a Democratic upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
92%
民主党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Michigan's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+18, incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% stems from consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting historical incumbency advantages and strong GOP performance in past cycles, including Trump's 2020 margin exceeding 20 points. No recent polling, scandals, or campaign shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with Democrat Jessica Swartz trailing significantly. While unforeseen late developments like health issues or legal surprises could theoretically narrow odds, the district's electoral math and lack of competitive dynamics make a Democratic upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Michigan's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+18, incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% stems from consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting historical incumbency advantages and strong GOP performance in past cycles, including Trump's 2020 margin exceeding 20 points. No recent polling, scandals, or campaign shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with Democrat Jessica Swartz trailing significantly. While unforeseen late developments like health issues or legal surprises could theoretically narrow odds, the district's electoral math and lack of competitive dynamics make a Democratic upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Michigan's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index around R+18, incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% stems from consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting historical incumbency advantages and strong GOP performance in past cycles, including Trump's 2020 margin exceeding 20 points. No recent polling, scandals, or campaign shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with Democrat Jessica Swartz trailing significantly. While unforeseen late developments like health issues or legal surprises could theoretically narrow odds, the district's electoral math and lack of competitive dynamics make a Democratic upset highly improbable ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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