Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district House race, driven by incumbent Tim Burchett's unopposed path through the August 6 Republican primary following the March 10 filing deadline and subsequent GOP ballot challenges clearing primary rivals. The district's R+17 partisan voting index, Burchett's dominant 69% victory margin in 2024, and his fundraising edge—$563,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Michaela Barnett's $17,000—cement its safe Republican status per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. Recent elevation to chair the House Oversight DOGE Subcommittee underscores his active incumbency. Upsets would require Burchett retirement amid Senate speculation, a major scandal, health issues, or an improbable national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$7,631 交易量
94%
民主党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district House race, driven by incumbent Tim Burchett's unopposed path through the August 6 Republican primary following the March 10 filing deadline and subsequent GOP ballot challenges clearing primary rivals. The district's R+17 partisan voting index, Burchett's dominant 69% victory margin in 2024, and his fundraising edge—$563,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Michaela Barnett's $17,000—cement its safe Republican status per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. Recent elevation to chair the House Oversight DOGE Subcommittee underscores his active incumbency. Upsets would require Burchett retirement amid Senate speculation, a major scandal, health issues, or an improbable national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$7,631结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district House race, driven by incumbent Tim Burchett's unopposed path through the August 6 Republican primary following the March 10 filing deadline and subsequent GOP ballot challenges clearing primary rivals. The district's R+17 partisan voting index, Burchett's dominant 69% victory margin in 2024, and his fundraising edge—$563,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Michaela Barnett's $17,000—cement its safe Republican status per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. Recent elevation to chair the House Oversight DOGE Subcommittee underscores his active incumbency. Upsets would require Burchett retirement amid Senate speculation, a major scandal, health issues, or an improbable national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,631结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district House race, driven by incumbent Tim Burchett's unopposed path through the August 6 Republican primary following the March 10 filing deadline and subsequent GOP ballot challenges clearing primary rivals. The district's R+17 partisan voting index, Burchett's dominant 69% victory margin in 2024, and his fundraising edge—$563,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Michaela Barnett's $17,000—cement its safe Republican status per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. Recent elevation to chair the House Oversight DOGE Subcommittee underscores his active incumbency. Upsets would require Burchett retirement amid Senate speculation, a major scandal, health issues, or an improbable national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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