Tennessee's 1st Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29—one of the nation's most Republican—drives trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Republican House winner in November 2026, reflecting historical blowouts where incumbent Rep. Diana Harshbarger captured 78% in 2024 and similar margins previously. Harshbarger's January 2026 reelection announcement, fortified by President Trump's November 2025 "Complete and Total Endorsement," solidifies her edge ahead of the August 6 GOP primary against challenger Danny Gibson, while Democrats' Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. report zero fundraising post-March filing deadline. Realistic challenges include a disruptive GOP primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, late-breaking scandal, incumbent health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm surge overturning the district's entrenched GOP dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$0 交易量
94%
民主党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 1st Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29—one of the nation's most Republican—drives trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Republican House winner in November 2026, reflecting historical blowouts where incumbent Rep. Diana Harshbarger captured 78% in 2024 and similar margins previously. Harshbarger's January 2026 reelection announcement, fortified by President Trump's November 2025 "Complete and Total Endorsement," solidifies her edge ahead of the August 6 GOP primary against challenger Danny Gibson, while Democrats' Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. report zero fundraising post-March filing deadline. Realistic challenges include a disruptive GOP primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, late-breaking scandal, incumbent health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm surge overturning the district's entrenched GOP dominance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 1st Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29—one of the nation's most Republican—drives trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Republican House winner in November 2026, reflecting historical blowouts where incumbent Rep. Diana Harshbarger captured 78% in 2024 and similar margins previously. Harshbarger's January 2026 reelection announcement, fortified by President Trump's November 2025 "Complete and Total Endorsement," solidifies her edge ahead of the August 6 GOP primary against challenger Danny Gibson, while Democrats' Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. report zero fundraising post-March filing deadline. Realistic challenges include a disruptive GOP primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, late-breaking scandal, incumbent health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm surge overturning the district's entrenched GOP dominance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 1st Congressional District, with its Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29—one of the nation's most Republican—drives trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Republican House winner in November 2026, reflecting historical blowouts where incumbent Rep. Diana Harshbarger captured 78% in 2024 and similar margins previously. Harshbarger's January 2026 reelection announcement, fortified by President Trump's November 2025 "Complete and Total Endorsement," solidifies her edge ahead of the August 6 GOP primary against challenger Danny Gibson, while Democrats' Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. report zero fundraising post-March filing deadline. Realistic challenges include a disruptive GOP primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, late-breaking scandal, incumbent health issues, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm surge overturning the district's entrenched GOP dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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