Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$11,650 交易量
$11,650 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$11,650 交易量
$11,650 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$6,825 交易量
95%
共和党
$4,825 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$11,650结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,650结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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