California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent presidential results favoring Democratic candidates by wide margins. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the seat in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a district that delivered roughly 84 percent support for Kamala Harris in the presidential contest. The June 2026 top-two primary features limited competition, primarily from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no viable Republican contenders emerging. Trader consensus pricing Democratic Party shares near 93.5 percent aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary upset or major late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic area.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,050 交易量
$34,050 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$34,050 交易量
$34,050 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$20,437 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,612 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent presidential results favoring Democratic candidates by wide margins. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the seat in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a district that delivered roughly 84 percent support for Kamala Harris in the presidential contest. The June 2026 top-two primary features limited competition, primarily from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no viable Republican contenders emerging. Trader consensus pricing Democratic Party shares near 93.5 percent aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary upset or major late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$34,050结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent presidential results favoring Democratic candidates by wide margins. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the seat in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a district that delivered roughly 84 percent support for Kamala Harris in the presidential contest. The June 2026 top-two primary features limited competition, primarily from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no viable Republican contenders emerging. Trader consensus pricing Democratic Party shares near 93.5 percent aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary upset or major late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,050结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent presidential results favoring Democratic candidates by wide margins. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the seat in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a district that delivered roughly 84 percent support for Kamala Harris in the presidential contest. The June 2026 top-two primary features limited competition, primarily from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no viable Republican contenders emerging. Trader consensus pricing Democratic Party shares near 93.5 percent aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary upset or major late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic area.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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