Recent polling in Texas's 15th Congressional District shows Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz by margins of 6–13 points among likely voters, driven by Pulido’s strong name recognition as a Tejano musician in the heavily Latino district and shifting voter sentiment on economic conditions and border issues. Redistricting altered the district’s composition ahead of the November 3 general election, while both candidates raised comparable funds near $6.8 million. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, and trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with these late-cycle trends over earlier Republican advantages from 2024 results.