Recent polling averages showing Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead or nearly tied with incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz have driven trader consensus toward an 80.5% implied probability for Pulido in the TX-15 general election. Redistricting enacted in 2025 altered roughly 80% of the district's boundaries, reducing De La Cruz's familiarity in newly added areas despite the seat's 2024 presidential results favoring Republicans. Multiple September surveys, including those from Texas Southern University and Normington Petts, placed Pulido at 50% or higher, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating to toss-up. Pulido's outreach at community events has bolstered support among Hispanic voters in the South Texas district, while De La Cruz maintains a fundraising edge but trails in head-to-head measures. The November 3 contest remains within the resolution window, with early voting set to begin later this month.