Bobby Pulido leads the TX-15 House race in trader consensus, reflecting recent polling averages that show the Democratic challenger ahead or tied with Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. The district, redrawn by the Texas legislature in 2025, spans South Texas with a large Latino electorate; it favored Donald Trump by 18 points in 2024 yet has produced mixed results in current surveys. Pulido, a Tejano musician, has gained ground through direct outreach including performances at cultural events, while forecasters rate the November 3 contest as a toss-up or lean Democratic. De La Cruz maintains advantages in fundraising and incumbency, but limited late-cycle data and voter engagement patterns support the market's implied probability for a Pulido victory.