Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures advanced unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Hampton Harris, who also faced no primary opposition, on November 3, 2026. The district's D+5 partisan lean, 52% Black voting-age population following 2022 redistricting, and Figures' 2024 victory margin of 55%-45% underpin trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for Democrats, reinforced by ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent developments include Figures securing millions in federal funding for Montgomery projects on March 10 and Harris criticizing his vote against deporting non-citizens convicted of public benefits fraud around March 15, but fundamentals favor the incumbent. Upsets could arise from a major Figures scandal, Harris fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,883 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures advanced unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Hampton Harris, who also faced no primary opposition, on November 3, 2026. The district's D+5 partisan lean, 52% Black voting-age population following 2022 redistricting, and Figures' 2024 victory margin of 55%-45% underpin trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for Democrats, reinforced by ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent developments include Figures securing millions in federal funding for Montgomery projects on March 10 and Harris criticizing his vote against deporting non-citizens convicted of public benefits fraud around March 15, but fundamentals favor the incumbent. Upsets could arise from a major Figures scandal, Harris fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$1,883结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures advanced unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Hampton Harris, who also faced no primary opposition, on November 3, 2026. The district's D+5 partisan lean, 52% Black voting-age population following 2022 redistricting, and Figures' 2024 victory margin of 55%-45% underpin trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for Democrats, reinforced by ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent developments include Figures securing millions in federal funding for Montgomery projects on March 10 and Harris criticizing his vote against deporting non-citizens convicted of public benefits fraud around March 15, but fundamentals favor the incumbent. Upsets could arise from a major Figures scandal, Harris fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,883结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures advanced unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a general election matchup against Republican Hampton Harris, who also faced no primary opposition, on November 3, 2026. The district's D+5 partisan lean, 52% Black voting-age population following 2022 redistricting, and Figures' 2024 victory margin of 55%-45% underpin trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for Democrats, reinforced by ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent developments include Figures securing millions in federal funding for Montgomery projects on March 10 and Harris criticizing his vote against deporting non-citizens convicted of public benefits fraud around March 15, but fundamentals favor the incumbent. Upsets could arise from a major Figures scandal, Harris fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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