Trader consensus in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House race tilts toward Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan with a 58.5% implied probability over Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 39%, driven by recent polling averages showing Bohannan ahead by 2-3 points in swing-state battlegrounds. Her standout performance in the October 15 debate—emphasizing abortion rights, Social Security protections, and healthcare access—has boosted her momentum in this district Biden won narrowly in 2020. Bohannan's substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2 million more than Miller-Meeks through Q3, supports robust get-out-the-vote efforts as early voting accelerates ahead of the November 5 election. GOP national headwinds favor incumbents, but local dynamics and voter turnout in key counties like Johnson and Linn underpin the closely contested odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
39%
民主党
59%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
39%
民主党
$0 交易量
59%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House race tilts toward Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan with a 58.5% implied probability over Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 39%, driven by recent polling averages showing Bohannan ahead by 2-3 points in swing-state battlegrounds. Her standout performance in the October 15 debate—emphasizing abortion rights, Social Security protections, and healthcare access—has boosted her momentum in this district Biden won narrowly in 2020. Bohannan's substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2 million more than Miller-Meeks through Q3, supports robust get-out-the-vote efforts as early voting accelerates ahead of the November 5 election. GOP national headwinds favor incumbents, but local dynamics and voter turnout in key counties like Johnson and Linn underpin the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House race tilts toward Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan with a 58.5% implied probability over Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 39%, driven by recent polling averages showing Bohannan ahead by 2-3 points in swing-state battlegrounds. Her standout performance in the October 15 debate—emphasizing abortion rights, Social Security protections, and healthcare access—has boosted her momentum in this district Biden won narrowly in 2020. Bohannan's substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2 million more than Miller-Meeks through Q3, supports robust get-out-the-vote efforts as early voting accelerates ahead of the November 5 election. GOP national headwinds favor incumbents, but local dynamics and voter turnout in key counties like Johnson and Linn underpin the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House race tilts toward Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan with a 58.5% implied probability over Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 39%, driven by recent polling averages showing Bohannan ahead by 2-3 points in swing-state battlegrounds. Her standout performance in the October 15 debate—emphasizing abortion rights, Social Security protections, and healthcare access—has boosted her momentum in this district Biden won narrowly in 2020. Bohannan's substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2 million more than Miller-Meeks through Q3, supports robust get-out-the-vote efforts as early voting accelerates ahead of the November 5 election. GOP national headwinds favor incumbents, but local dynamics and voter turnout in key counties like Johnson and Linn underpin the closely contested odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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