Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 73% to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent consolidation behind State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott as the likely nominee against incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn (R). A state panel's decision within the last 48 hours to remove a Democratic primary challenger from the June 2 ballot—following state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement of Trone Garriott—has strengthened the Democratic matchup in this swing district. Early polls, including a Change Research survey showing Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, combined with Nunn's narrow 2024 reelection (51.8%) and underwater job approval, reflect trader optimism amid DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting, despite Cook Political's Lean Republican rating. The June primary and general election on November 3 remain key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
71%
共和党
31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
71%
共和党
$39 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 73% to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent consolidation behind State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott as the likely nominee against incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn (R). A state panel's decision within the last 48 hours to remove a Democratic primary challenger from the June 2 ballot—following state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement of Trone Garriott—has strengthened the Democratic matchup in this swing district. Early polls, including a Change Research survey showing Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, combined with Nunn's narrow 2024 reelection (51.8%) and underwater job approval, reflect trader optimism amid DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting, despite Cook Political's Lean Republican rating. The June primary and general election on November 3 remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
交易量
$39结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 73% to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent consolidation behind State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott as the likely nominee against incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn (R). A state panel's decision within the last 48 hours to remove a Democratic primary challenger from the June 2 ballot—following state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement of Trone Garriott—has strengthened the Democratic matchup in this swing district. Early polls, including a Change Research survey showing Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, combined with Nunn's narrow 2024 reelection (51.8%) and underwater job approval, reflect trader optimism amid DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting, despite Cook Political's Lean Republican rating. The June primary and general election on November 3 remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 73% to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent consolidation behind State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott as the likely nominee against incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn (R). A state panel's decision within the last 48 hours to remove a Democratic primary challenger from the June 2 ballot—following state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement of Trone Garriott—has strengthened the Democratic matchup in this swing district. Early polls, including a Change Research survey showing Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, combined with Nunn's narrow 2024 reelection (51.8%) and underwater job approval, reflect trader optimism amid DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting, despite Cook Political's Lean Republican rating. The June primary and general election on November 3 remain key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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