The strong Republican lean of Iowa’s 4th congressional district, centered in rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the 2026 gubernatorial race created an open seat, yet primary results on June 2 confirmed Chris McGowan advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Dave Dawson securing the Democratic nomination. The district’s consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, combined with limited reported shifts in voter registration or polling, has kept the implied probability elevated. Realistic paths to a closer outcome include an unusually strong national Democratic environment, unexpected candidate-specific developments before November 3, or significantly higher turnout among Democratic-leaning voters than historical patterns indicate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$20,064 交易量
93%
民主党
$12,091 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Iowa’s 4th congressional district, centered in rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the 2026 gubernatorial race created an open seat, yet primary results on June 2 confirmed Chris McGowan advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Dave Dawson securing the Democratic nomination. The district’s consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, combined with limited reported shifts in voter registration or polling, has kept the implied probability elevated. Realistic paths to a closer outcome include an unusually strong national Democratic environment, unexpected candidate-specific developments before November 3, or significantly higher turnout among Democratic-leaning voters than historical patterns indicate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Iowa’s 4th congressional district, centered in rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the 2026 gubernatorial race created an open seat, yet primary results on June 2 confirmed Chris McGowan advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Dave Dawson securing the Democratic nomination. The district’s consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, combined with limited reported shifts in voter registration or polling, has kept the implied probability elevated. Realistic paths to a closer outcome include an unusually strong national Democratic environment, unexpected candidate-specific developments before November 3, or significantly higher turnout among Democratic-leaning voters than historical patterns indicate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Iowa’s 4th congressional district, centered in rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the 2026 gubernatorial race created an open seat, yet primary results on June 2 confirmed Chris McGowan advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Dave Dawson securing the Democratic nomination. The district’s consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, combined with limited reported shifts in voter registration or polling, has kept the implied probability elevated. Realistic paths to a closer outcome include an unusually strong national Democratic environment, unexpected candidate-specific developments before November 3, or significantly higher turnout among Democratic-leaning voters than historical patterns indicate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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