Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his prior victories, including a 62.7% share in 2024. The district spans Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, where voter registration and past turnout favor Democratic candidates. Limited Republican opposition, centered on challenger Bob Smith, and the absence of major recent disruptions in local polling or endorsements have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Factors that could realistically narrow the margin include an unexpected primary upset among Democratic contenders, a significant national political shift, or late developments affecting candidate viability before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,916 交易量
$17,916 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,916 交易量
$17,916 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,034 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,881 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his prior victories, including a 62.7% share in 2024. The district spans Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, where voter registration and past turnout favor Democratic candidates. Limited Republican opposition, centered on challenger Bob Smith, and the absence of major recent disruptions in local polling or endorsements have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Factors that could realistically narrow the margin include an unexpected primary upset among Democratic contenders, a significant national political shift, or late developments affecting candidate viability before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$17,916结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his prior victories, including a 62.7% share in 2024. The district spans Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, where voter registration and past turnout favor Democratic candidates. Limited Republican opposition, centered on challenger Bob Smith, and the absence of major recent disruptions in local polling or endorsements have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Factors that could realistically narrow the margin include an unexpected primary upset among Democratic contenders, a significant national political shift, or late developments affecting candidate viability before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,916结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his prior victories, including a 62.7% share in 2024. The district spans Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, where voter registration and past turnout favor Democratic candidates. Limited Republican opposition, centered on challenger Bob Smith, and the absence of major recent disruptions in local polling or endorsements have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Factors that could realistically narrow the margin include an unexpected primary upset among Democratic contenders, a significant national political shift, or late developments affecting candidate viability before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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