Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding lead in trader assessments for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat due to the state’s consistent Democratic tilt, her decisive primary win over Rep. Angie Craig, and voter discontent with the Trump administration’s policies on immigration and foreign affairs. Recent Star Tribune and Rasmussen polls from early October show her narrowly ahead or tied with Michele Tafoya (47-43 and 48-45 ranges), within margins of error, driven by strong Twin Cities margins and a Democratic enthusiasm edge. Tafoya’s rural and suburban support has not closed the gap in a state that last elected a Republican senator in 2002. With early voting underway and the November 3 general election approaching, the race remains competitive but structurally favors the Democratic nominee.