Incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen holds a trader consensus edge at 59.5% in the TN-09 Democratic primary, buoyed by his long tenure since 2007, strong local name recognition, and fundraising advantages in the heavily Black, safe Democratic Memphis-based district. A recent poll of likely primary voters (conducted late January to early February, released mid-March) showed Cohen at 45% to challenger state Rep. Justin Pearson's 44%, signaling a competitive race fueled by Pearson's national profile from the "Tennessee Three" gun reform protests and backing from Justice Democrats. Activist DeVante Hill trails at 10.2%, potentially splitting progressive support ahead of the August 6 closed primary.