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选举·美国大选

哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？

Market icon
选举·美国大选

哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？

$1,526,160 交易量

Polymarket

$1,526,160 交易量

Market icon

民主党

$660,817 交易量

57%

Market icon

共和党

$865,343 交易量

43%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trump's landslide 2024 victory delivers Republicans the presidency and expanded congressional majorities, yet traders favor Democrats at 57.5% for 2028 due to constitutional term limits preventing his third run, exposing an open GOP primary vulnerable to internal divisions around VP JD Vance's untested national appeal. Recent Democratic regrouping highlights rising stars like governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, bolstered by strong early fundraising and polling edges in hypothetical matchups. Historical open-seat races post-incumbent wins often tilt toward the out-party, amplified here by 2026 midterm dynamics in battleground states. This tight trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, Electoral College math, and potential scandals or economic shifts ahead.

Trump's landslide 2024 victory delivers Republicans the presidency and expanded congressional majorities, yet traders favor Democrats at 57.5% for 2028 due to constitutional term limits preventing his third run, exposing an open GOP primary vulnerable to internal divisions around VP JD Vance's untested national appeal. Recent Democratic regrouping highlights rising stars like governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, bolstered by strong early fundraising and polling edges in hypothetical matchups. Historical open-seat races post-incumbent wins often tilt toward the out-party, amplified here by 2026 midterm dynamics in battleground states. This tight trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, Electoral College math, and potential scandals or economic shifts ahead.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trump's landslide 2024 victory delivers Republicans the presidency and expanded congressional majorities, yet traders favor Democrats at 57.5% for 2028 due to constitutional term limits preventing his third run, exposing an open GOP primary vulnerable to internal divisions around VP JD Vance's untested national appeal. Recent Democratic regrouping highlights rising stars like governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, bolstered by strong early fundraising and polling edges in hypothetical matchups. Historical open-seat races post-incumbent wins often tilt toward the out-party, amplified here by 2026 midterm dynamics in battleground states. This tight trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, Electoral College math, and potential scandals or economic shifts ahead.

Trump's landslide 2024 victory delivers Republicans the presidency and expanded congressional majorities, yet traders favor Democrats at 57.5% for 2028 due to constitutional term limits preventing his third run, exposing an open GOP primary vulnerable to internal divisions around VP JD Vance's untested national appeal. Recent Democratic regrouping highlights rising stars like governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, bolstered by strong early fundraising and polling edges in hypothetical matchups. Historical open-seat races post-incumbent wins often tilt toward the out-party, amplified here by 2026 midterm dynamics in battleground states. This tight trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, Electoral College math, and potential scandals or economic shifts ahead.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"民主党"，概率为 57%，其次是"共和党"，概率为 43%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 57¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 57%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？"已产生 $1.5 million 的总交易量（自Jul 18, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？"的当前领先者是"民主党"，概率为 57%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 57%。紧随其后的结果是"共和党"，概率为 43%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哪一方赢得2028年美国总统大选？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。