Recent polls drive the 85% implied probability against any candidate winning outright in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, as no frontrunner approaches the 50%+1 valid vote threshold required to avoid a runoff. AtlasIntel's April 2 survey shows President Lula (PT) at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 40.4%, with others like Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.7% fragmenting the field. March polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus similarly cap leaders below 46%, amid a tightening race reflected in deadlocked second-round scenarios. This multipolar dynamic, consistent with historical Brazilian elections featuring strong incumbents and divided opposition, reinforces trader expectations of a polarized contest proceeding to a November runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$48,552 交易量
$48,552 交易量
2026-10-04
是
$48,552 交易量
$48,552 交易量
2026-10-04
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls drive the 85% implied probability against any candidate winning outright in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, as no frontrunner approaches the 50%+1 valid vote threshold required to avoid a runoff. AtlasIntel's April 2 survey shows President Lula (PT) at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 40.4%, with others like Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.7% fragmenting the field. March polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus similarly cap leaders below 46%, amid a tightening race reflected in deadlocked second-round scenarios. This multipolar dynamic, consistent with historical Brazilian elections featuring strong incumbents and divided opposition, reinforces trader expectations of a polarized contest proceeding to a November runoff.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$48,552结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls drive the 85% implied probability against any candidate winning outright in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, as no frontrunner approaches the 50%+1 valid vote threshold required to avoid a runoff. AtlasIntel's April 2 survey shows President Lula (PT) at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 40.4%, with others like Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.7% fragmenting the field. March polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus similarly cap leaders below 46%, amid a tightening race reflected in deadlocked second-round scenarios. This multipolar dynamic, consistent with historical Brazilian elections featuring strong incumbents and divided opposition, reinforces trader expectations of a polarized contest proceeding to a November runoff.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$48,552结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls drive the 85% implied probability against any candidate winning outright in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, as no frontrunner approaches the 50%+1 valid vote threshold required to avoid a runoff. AtlasIntel's April 2 survey shows President Lula (PT) at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 40.4%, with others like Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.7% fragmenting the field. March polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus similarly cap leaders below 46%, amid a tightening race reflected in deadlocked second-round scenarios. This multipolar dynamic, consistent with historical Brazilian elections featuring strong incumbents and divided opposition, reinforces trader expectations of a polarized contest proceeding to a November runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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