President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads early 2026 presidential polls at around 30%, making him the frontrunner for Brazil's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, though well below the 50%+1 threshold to win outright and advance directly. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas follows closely at about 20%, gaining traction from strong state economic performance and as a heir to Jair Bolsonaro's base after the Superior Electoral Court upheld the ex-president's ineligibility through 2030 in late September 2024. Trailing candidates include Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior and Michelle Bolsonaro, with party conventions in mid-2026 set to finalize slates. Traders monitor Lula's dipping approval amid inflation and fiscal challenges, alongside regional voting blocs in swing Northeast and South states, as pivotal to determining the top two for the potential runoff on October 25.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$205,510 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
87%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
74%
费尔南多·阿达
12%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
5%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
3%
$205,510 交易量
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$15,074 交易量
87%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$96,354 交易量
74%
费尔南多·阿达
$29,770 交易量
12%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$55,152 交易量
5%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$0 交易量
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$9,161 交易量
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads early 2026 presidential polls at around 30%, making him the frontrunner for Brazil's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, though well below the 50%+1 threshold to win outright and advance directly. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas follows closely at about 20%, gaining traction from strong state economic performance and as a heir to Jair Bolsonaro's base after the Superior Electoral Court upheld the ex-president's ineligibility through 2030 in late September 2024. Trailing candidates include Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior and Michelle Bolsonaro, with party conventions in mid-2026 set to finalize slates. Traders monitor Lula's dipping approval amid inflation and fiscal challenges, alongside regional voting blocs in swing Northeast and South states, as pivotal to determining the top two for the potential runoff on October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$205,510结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads early 2026 presidential polls at around 30%, making him the frontrunner for Brazil's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, though well below the 50%+1 threshold to win outright and advance directly. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas follows closely at about 20%, gaining traction from strong state economic performance and as a heir to Jair Bolsonaro's base after the Superior Electoral Court upheld the ex-president's ineligibility through 2030 in late September 2024. Trailing candidates include Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior and Michelle Bolsonaro, with party conventions in mid-2026 set to finalize slates. Traders monitor Lula's dipping approval amid inflation and fiscal challenges, alongside regional voting blocs in swing Northeast and South states, as pivotal to determining the top two for the potential runoff on October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$205,510结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads early 2026 presidential polls at around 30%, making him the frontrunner for Brazil's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, though well below the 50%+1 threshold to win outright and advance directly. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas follows closely at about 20%, gaining traction from strong state economic performance and as a heir to Jair Bolsonaro's base after the Superior Electoral Court upheld the ex-president's ineligibility through 2030 in late September 2024. Trailing candidates include Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior and Michelle Bolsonaro, with party conventions in mid-2026 set to finalize slates. Traders monitor Lula's dipping approval amid inflation and fiscal challenges, alongside regional voting blocs in swing Northeast and South states, as pivotal to determining the top two for the potential runoff on October 25.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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