Trader consensus closely splits between Renan Santos at 33.5% and Ronaldo Caiado at 30% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling averages showing conservative governors neck-and-neck in a fragmented right-wing field following Jair Bolsonaro's Supreme Court ineligibility ruling until 2030. Caiado gains from Goiás' strong economic metrics and rural support, while Santos benefits from rising national profile amid opposition disunity. Romeu Zema trails at 14% on Minas Gerais incumbency, with PT figures like Fernando Haddad under 6% if Lula runs. The race remains tight due to volatile early polls and undecided voters; party primaries, endorsements, or scandals ahead of 2026 conventions could create separation and boost runoff positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于雷南·桑托斯 34%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 30%
罗梅乌·泽马 14%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 7.4%
$89,453 交易量
$89,453 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
雷南·桑托斯
34%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
30%
罗梅乌·泽马
14%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
7%
费尔南多·阿达
5%
哈金纽·儒尼奥尔
4%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
4%
塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
4%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
3%
杰拉尔多·阿尔克明
2%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
2%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
雷南·桑托斯 34%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 30%
罗梅乌·泽马 14%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 7.4%
$89,453 交易量
$89,453 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
雷南·桑托斯
$16,015 交易量
34%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$4,942 交易量
30%
罗梅乌·泽马
$0 交易量
14%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$1,663 交易量
7%
费尔南多·阿达
$0 交易量
5%
哈金纽·儒尼奥尔
$63,049 交易量
4%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$0 交易量
4%
塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$1,316 交易量
4%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$1,171 交易量
3%
杰拉尔多·阿尔克明
$0 交易量
2%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$0 交易量
2%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$0 交易量
1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$1,297 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus closely splits between Renan Santos at 33.5% and Ronaldo Caiado at 30% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling averages showing conservative governors neck-and-neck in a fragmented right-wing field following Jair Bolsonaro's Supreme Court ineligibility ruling until 2030. Caiado gains from Goiás' strong economic metrics and rural support, while Santos benefits from rising national profile amid opposition disunity. Romeu Zema trails at 14% on Minas Gerais incumbency, with PT figures like Fernando Haddad under 6% if Lula runs. The race remains tight due to volatile early polls and undecided voters; party primaries, endorsements, or scandals ahead of 2026 conventions could create separation and boost runoff positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
交易量
$89,453结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus closely splits between Renan Santos at 33.5% and Ronaldo Caiado at 30% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling averages showing conservative governors neck-and-neck in a fragmented right-wing field following Jair Bolsonaro's Supreme Court ineligibility ruling until 2030. Caiado gains from Goiás' strong economic metrics and rural support, while Santos benefits from rising national profile amid opposition disunity. Romeu Zema trails at 14% on Minas Gerais incumbency, with PT figures like Fernando Haddad under 6% if Lula runs. The race remains tight due to volatile early polls and undecided voters; party primaries, endorsements, or scandals ahead of 2026 conventions could create separation and boost runoff positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$89,453结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus closely splits between Renan Santos at 33.5% and Ronaldo Caiado at 30% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polling averages showing conservative governors neck-and-neck in a fragmented right-wing field following Jair Bolsonaro's Supreme Court ineligibility ruling until 2030. Caiado gains from Goiás' strong economic metrics and rural support, while Santos benefits from rising national profile amid opposition disunity. Romeu Zema trails at 14% on Minas Gerais incumbency, with PT figures like Fernando Haddad under 6% if Lula runs. The race remains tight due to volatile early polls and undecided voters; party primaries, endorsements, or scandals ahead of 2026 conventions could create separation and boost runoff positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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