Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+9 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but multiple Democratic candidates—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, whom Brownley endorsed—have entered ahead of the March filing deadline, while Republican fundraising remains modest, led by Samuel Gallucci at $62,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No polls exist yet, but the top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 favors two Democrats advancing in this blue-leaning battleground. A commanding GOP position would require a top recruit dominating the primary, a national Republican midterm surge, or a major Democratic scandal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,987 交易量
$18,987 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$18,987 交易量
$18,987 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,610 交易量
94%
共和党
$9,376 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+9 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but multiple Democratic candidates—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, whom Brownley endorsed—have entered ahead of the March filing deadline, while Republican fundraising remains modest, led by Samuel Gallucci at $62,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No polls exist yet, but the top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 favors two Democrats advancing in this blue-leaning battleground. A commanding GOP position would require a top recruit dominating the primary, a national Republican midterm surge, or a major Democratic scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$18,987结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+9 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but multiple Democratic candidates—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, whom Brownley endorsed—have entered ahead of the March filing deadline, while Republican fundraising remains modest, led by Samuel Gallucci at $62,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No polls exist yet, but the top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 favors two Democrats advancing in this blue-leaning battleground. A commanding GOP position would require a top recruit dominating the primary, a national Republican midterm surge, or a major Democratic scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,987结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+9 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but multiple Democratic candidates—including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, whom Brownley endorsed—have entered ahead of the March filing deadline, while Republican fundraising remains modest, led by Samuel Gallucci at $62,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No polls exist yet, but the top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 favors two Democrats advancing in this blue-leaning battleground. A commanding GOP position would require a top recruit dominating the primary, a national Republican midterm surge, or a major Democratic scandal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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