Mary Peltola holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the 2026 Alaska Senate race due to consistent polling leads and a substantial fundraising advantage heading into the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Recent surveys, including an InsiderAdvantage poll from October 9-10 showing her at 48.2% to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 42.6% in first-round preferences and an Alaska Survey Research survey placing her ahead 51-49 in final-round estimates, have reinforced her position after she captured 49.5% in the August top-four primary. Sullivan, seeking a third term, trails despite Republican outside spending exceeding $35 million and high-profile support including a scheduled October 13 rally by President Trump and prior appearances by Vice President Vance. The contest remains one of the closest Senate races nationally, with forecasters rating it a toss-up or lean Democratic.