Recent polling averages give Democrat Mary Peltola a modest lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate race, driving her 61 percent market share. Peltola’s early fundraising advantage, volunteer surge, and emphasis on affordability policies have sustained momentum since her January entry, while Alaska’s jungle primary and ranked-choice voting favor her path in the general election. Sullivan’s long tenure and recent national environment provide counterbalance, though a late-entering namesake challenger has drawn limited attention. The August primary remains the next key test before November.