Recent Alaska Survey Research polls from late March show Democrat Mary Peltola leading incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 49%-44% in the first round of ranked-choice voting and 52%-48% in the final IRV round, boosting her trader consensus to 61.5% on Polymarket ahead of the August 18 top-four primary. Peltola's statewide victories in 2022 House races, centrist appeal emphasizing fish, family, and local issues, and recent social media attacks on political elites have widened her polling edge over the two-term senator. Sullivan trails at 38.5% amid Democrats' recruitment push in this nonpartisan primary system, with minor candidates like Dustin Darden and Ann Diener at negligible odds; national Senate control implications heighten trader focus as the November 3 general approaches.