Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于菲利 10–15% 100.0%
Feely 25%+ <1%
费利20-25% <1%
菲利 15–20% <1%
$24,531 交易量
$24,531 交易量
2026-08-04
Feely 25%+
否
费利20-25%
否
菲利 15–20%
否
菲利 10–15%
是
菲利 5–10%
否
Feely <5%
否
查普利克 <5%
否
查普利克5-10%
否
查普利克10%+
否
菲利 10–15% 100.0%
Feely 25%+ <1%
费利20-25% <1%
菲利 15–20% <1%
$24,531 交易量
$24,531 交易量
2026-08-04
Feely 25%+
$1,868 交易量
否
费利20-25%
$4,113 交易量
否
菲利 15–20%
$8,081 交易量
否
菲利 10–15%
$4,527 交易量
是
菲利 5–10%
$2,095 交易量
否
Feely <5%
$1,030 交易量
否
查普利克 <5%
$999 交易量
否
查普利克5-10%
$898 交易量
否
查普利克10%+
$920 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$24,531结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$24,531结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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