Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his Trump endorsement in January and former AZGOP chair Gina Swoboda's February switch to the secretary of state race, which cleared the field after Trump's dual nod. Feely's fundraising dominance—over $1 million raised by late 2025—and name recognition from his Cardinals tenure have consolidated support in the open seat vacated by David Schweikert, while challengers like Jason Duey, Todd Graham, and Joseph Chaplik trail with fragmented bases and lower resources. No recent polls contradict this positioning, and the March filing deadline brought no high-profile entrants to shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Jay Feely 71%
杰森·杜伊 5.2%
托德·格雷厄姆 5.1%
约瑟夫·查普利克 5.0%
$303,484 交易量
$303,484 交易量
2026-08-04
Jay Feely
71%
杰森·杜伊
5%
托德·格雷厄姆
5%
约瑟夫·查普利克
5%
约翰·特罗博
3%
布兰登·索沃斯
2%
德里克·加列戈
2%
吉娜·斯沃博达
1%
马克·布尔诺维奇
1%
Kari Lake
1%
Paul Reevs
1%
凯特琳·珀林顿
1%
马特·格雷斯
1%
穆切尔·乌根蒂-丽塔
<1%
Jay Feely 71%
杰森·杜伊 5.2%
托德·格雷厄姆 5.1%
约瑟夫·查普利克 5.0%
$303,484 交易量
$303,484 交易量
2026-08-04
Jay Feely
$4,558 交易量
71%
杰森·杜伊
$0 交易量
5%
托德·格雷厄姆
$0 交易量
5%
约瑟夫·查普利克
$7,369 交易量
5%
约翰·特罗博
$0 交易量
3%
布兰登·索沃斯
$0 交易量
2%
德里克·加列戈
$0 交易量
2%
吉娜·斯沃博达
$0 交易量
1%
马克·布尔诺维奇
$4,312 交易量
1%
Kari Lake
$6,398 交易量
1%
Paul Reevs
$220,976 交易量
1%
凯特琳·珀林顿
$8,015 交易量
1%
马特·格雷斯
$47,835 交易量
1%
穆切尔·乌根蒂-丽塔
$4,021 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his Trump endorsement in January and former AZGOP chair Gina Swoboda's February switch to the secretary of state race, which cleared the field after Trump's dual nod. Feely's fundraising dominance—over $1 million raised by late 2025—and name recognition from his Cardinals tenure have consolidated support in the open seat vacated by David Schweikert, while challengers like Jason Duey, Todd Graham, and Joseph Chaplik trail with fragmented bases and lower resources. No recent polls contradict this positioning, and the March filing deadline brought no high-profile entrants to shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET
交易量
$303,484结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his Trump endorsement in January and former AZGOP chair Gina Swoboda's February switch to the secretary of state race, which cleared the field after Trump's dual nod. Feely's fundraising dominance—over $1 million raised by late 2025—and name recognition from his Cardinals tenure have consolidated support in the open seat vacated by David Schweikert, while challengers like Jason Duey, Todd Graham, and Joseph Chaplik trail with fragmented bases and lower resources. No recent polls contradict this positioning, and the March filing deadline brought no high-profile entrants to shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$303,484结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his Trump endorsement in January and former AZGOP chair Gina Swoboda's February switch to the secretary of state race, which cleared the field after Trump's dual nod. Feely's fundraising dominance—over $1 million raised by late 2025—and name recognition from his Cardinals tenure have consolidated support in the open seat vacated by David Schweikert, while challengers like Jason Duey, Todd Graham, and Joseph Chaplik trail with fragmented bases and lower resources. No recent polls contradict this positioning, and the March filing deadline brought no high-profile entrants to shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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