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选举·特朗普

谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？

Market icon
选举·特朗普

谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？

斯科特·维纳 63%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.6%

康妮·陈 7.9%

熊靖超 <1%

Polymarket

$298,634 交易量

斯科特·维纳 63%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.6%

康妮·陈 7.9%

熊靖超 <1%

Polymarket

$298,634 交易量

斯科特·维纳

$33,277 交易量

63%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$0 交易量

25%

康妮·陈

$200,435 交易量

13%

熊靖超

$39,070 交易量

1%

大卫·加内泽

$8,600 交易量

<1%

达伦·赫尔顿

$17,251 交易量

<1%

科尔·贝特尔斯

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener commands 63% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat long held by Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his fundraising dominance—recent filings show him raising over $2 million—and endorsements from moderate Democrats and business groups valuing his housing and transit legislation. Saikat Chakrabarti's 25% reflects progressive enthusiasm from his Sanders-era organizing but limited broader appeal in the San Francisco district. Supervisor Connie Chan's 13% stems from local visibility, though she trails in polls. No major catalysts in the past week post-Pelosi's November reelection win, where she took 83%; traders eye her potential 2026 retirement announcement and filing deadlines as key movers ahead of the March primary.

State Sen. Scott Wiener commands 63% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat long held by Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his fundraising dominance—recent filings show him raising over $2 million—and endorsements from moderate Democrats and business groups valuing his housing and transit legislation. Saikat Chakrabarti's 25% reflects progressive enthusiasm from his Sanders-era organizing but limited broader appeal in the San Francisco district. Supervisor Connie Chan's 13% stems from local visibility, though she trails in polls. No major catalysts in the past week post-Pelosi's November reelection win, where she took 83%; traders eye her potential 2026 retirement announcement and filing deadlines as key movers ahead of the March primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener commands 63% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat long held by Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his fundraising dominance—recent filings show him raising over $2 million—and endorsements from moderate Democrats and business groups valuing his housing and transit legislation. Saikat Chakrabarti's 25% reflects progressive enthusiasm from his Sanders-era organizing but limited broader appeal in the San Francisco district. Supervisor Connie Chan's 13% stems from local visibility, though she trails in polls. No major catalysts in the past week post-Pelosi's November reelection win, where she took 83%; traders eye her potential 2026 retirement announcement and filing deadlines as key movers ahead of the March primary.

State Sen. Scott Wiener commands 63% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat long held by Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his fundraising dominance—recent filings show him raising over $2 million—and endorsements from moderate Democrats and business groups valuing his housing and transit legislation. Saikat Chakrabarti's 25% reflects progressive enthusiasm from his Sanders-era organizing but limited broader appeal in the San Francisco district. Supervisor Connie Chan's 13% stems from local visibility, though she trails in polls. No major catalysts in the past week post-Pelosi's November reelection win, where she took 83%; traders eye her potential 2026 retirement announcement and filing deadlines as key movers ahead of the March primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"斯科特·维纳"，概率为 63%，其次是"Saikat Chakrabarti"，概率为 25%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 63¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 63%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？"已产生 $298.6K 的总交易量（自Nov 24, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？"的当前领先者是"斯科特·维纳"，概率为 63%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 63%。紧随其后的结果是"Saikat Chakrabarti"，概率为 25%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将在南希·佩洛西（ Nancy Pelosi ）的国会席位（ CA-11 ）的初选中排名第一？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。