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政治·特朗普

2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？

是

90% chance
Polymarket

$99,305 交易量

是

90% chance
Polymarket

$99,305 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I and fixed by federal statute at the Tuesday following the first Monday in November—even years—requiring congressional action to alter, a high bar unmet historically amid Civil War, world wars, or COVID-19. Trader consensus at 89.5% "Yes" stems from no official proposals or legislative momentum for delay, despite President Trump's early 2026 remarks expressing midterm loss fears and advocating nationalized elections or curbs on mail-in ballots and voting machines. Legal experts affirm presidential powerlessness to unilaterally postpone, with recent reporting (February-March) debunking cancellation rumors amid routine primary scheduling in battleground states. Tail risks like national emergencies remain priced low absent concrete developments.

U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I and fixed by federal statute at the Tuesday following the first Monday in November—even years—requiring congressional action to alter, a high bar unmet historically amid Civil War, world wars, or COVID-19. Trader consensus at 89.5% "Yes" stems from no official proposals or legislative momentum for delay, despite President Trump's early 2026 remarks expressing midterm loss fears and advocating nationalized elections or curbs on mail-in ballots and voting machines. Legal experts affirm presidential powerlessness to unilaterally postpone, with recent reporting (February-March) debunking cancellation rumors amid routine primary scheduling in battleground states. Tail risks like national emergencies remain priced low absent concrete developments.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I and fixed by federal statute at the Tuesday following the first Monday in November—even years—requiring congressional action to alter, a high bar unmet historically amid Civil War, world wars, or COVID-19. Trader consensus at 89.5% "Yes" stems from no official proposals or legislative momentum for delay, despite President Trump's early 2026 remarks expressing midterm loss fears and advocating nationalized elections or curbs on mail-in ballots and voting machines. Legal experts affirm presidential powerlessness to unilaterally postpone, with recent reporting (February-March) debunking cancellation rumors amid routine primary scheduling in battleground states. Tail risks like national emergencies remain priced low absent concrete developments.

U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I and fixed by federal statute at the Tuesday following the first Monday in November—even years—requiring congressional action to alter, a high bar unmet historically amid Civil War, world wars, or COVID-19. Trader consensus at 89.5% "Yes" stems from no official proposals or legislative momentum for delay, despite President Trump's early 2026 remarks expressing midterm loss fears and advocating nationalized elections or curbs on mail-in ballots and voting machines. Legal experts affirm presidential powerlessness to unilaterally postpone, with recent reporting (February-March) debunking cancellation rumors amid routine primary scheduling in battleground states. Tail risks like national emergencies remain priced low absent concrete developments.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年中期选举会按计划举行吗？"，概率为 90%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 90¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 90%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？"已产生 $99.3K 的总交易量（自Jan 15, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？"的当前领先者是"2026年中期选举会按计划举行吗？"，概率为 90%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 90%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年中期选举会按计划进行吗？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。