Iran's enriched uranium stockpile hit a record 6,621 kg in August 2024 per IAEA reports, with nearly 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade levels, far exceeding JCPOA limits. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman in late September stalled without progress, as Tehran demands full sanctions relief before any curbs. Escalating regional tensions—marked by Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—have further dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA censured Iran in June, prompting threats of new enrichment facilities. Traders eye the UN snapback sanctions deadline in October 2025 and US election outcomes as potential catalysts for shifts in negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
$18,695 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
16%
June 30
25%
December 31
31%
$18,695 交易量
April 30
$271 交易量
16%
June 30
$11 交易量
25%
December 31
$18,412 交易量
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile hit a record 6,621 kg in August 2024 per IAEA reports, with nearly 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade levels, far exceeding JCPOA limits. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman in late September stalled without progress, as Tehran demands full sanctions relief before any curbs. Escalating regional tensions—marked by Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—have further dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA censured Iran in June, prompting threats of new enrichment facilities. Traders eye the UN snapback sanctions deadline in October 2025 and US election outcomes as potential catalysts for shifts in negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$18,695结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile hit a record 6,621 kg in August 2024 per IAEA reports, with nearly 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade levels, far exceeding JCPOA limits. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman in late September stalled without progress, as Tehran demands full sanctions relief before any curbs. Escalating regional tensions—marked by Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—have further dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA censured Iran in June, prompting threats of new enrichment facilities. Traders eye the UN snapback sanctions deadline in October 2025 and US election outcomes as potential catalysts for shifts in negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$18,695结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile hit a record 6,621 kg in August 2024 per IAEA reports, with nearly 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade levels, far exceeding JCPOA limits. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman in late September stalled without progress, as Tehran demands full sanctions relief before any curbs. Escalating regional tensions—marked by Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—have further dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA censured Iran in June, prompting threats of new enrichment facilities. Traders eye the UN snapback sanctions deadline in October 2025 and US election outcomes as potential catalysts for shifts in negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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