Recent statements from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicate no plans for a Trump-Putin call or in-person meeting in the near term, with Ukraine mediation efforts currently on hold despite ongoing backchannel contacts by U.S. envoys. This aligns with the absence of confirmed diplomatic scheduling or invitations ahead of the June 30 cutoff, following the leaders' last summit in Alaska in 2025 and the earlier cancellation of proposed talks in Budapest. Trader consensus on no meeting by June 30 reflects these stalled bilateral dynamics and lack of imminent catalysts. A sudden breakthrough in Ukraine negotiations or an unexpected invitation to a multilateral forum could still shift the outlook before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Trump Supports Possible Meeting Between Zelensky and Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 95%3%
Trump expressed support for a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin, emphasizing the need for compromises but did not mention any meeting with Putin himself, reinforcing market belief in no Trump-Putin meeting.
Putin visits China days after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 82%4%
Putin’s visit to China shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping highlighted the strong Russia-China ties contrasting with the lack of a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market belief no meeting would occur soon.
Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump-Xi summit
No meeting by June 30 rises to 97%3%
Putin's meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump's summit with Xi highlighted the strong China-Russia relationship and contrasted with the lack of a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market sentiment favoring no meeting by June 30.
Putin Visits Xi Jinping in China Days After Trump Summit
No meeting by June 30 dips to 63%4%
Putin's visit to China shortly after Trump's summit with Xi Jinping raised speculation about China as a diplomatic hub but did not indicate a Trump-Putin meeting, reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or China.
Kremlin says Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remained open, keeping the prospect of a US‑Russia meeting alive and nudging the "Other" and "Russia" prices marginally upward.
Kremlin confirms invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
No meeting by June 30 rises to 94%2%
The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin's invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open, but no meeting was scheduled. This maintained market expectations that no meeting would occur by June 30.
Trump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine-Russia War
No meeting by June 30 rises to 82%2%
President Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, agreed upon by Putin and Zelensky, signaling diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, impacting market expectations toward no meeting.
Trump to invite Putin to December G‑20 summit in Miami
United States plunges to 0%49%
Trump indicated he would invite Putin to the G‑20 summit in Miami in December 2026, reviving expectations of a future meeting and slightly lifting the "United States" and "Other" probabilities while the "No meeting" price steadied.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%2%
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, raising market speculation about a possible meeting. However, Trump expressed doubts about Putin's attendance, limiting market confidence in the event.
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
Putin arrives in New Delhi on a state visit aimed at bolstering Russia‑India ties
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 80%7%
A report that Putin was visiting India for a state visit was interpreted as a sign that his diplomatic itinerary was full, reducing the likelihood of a Trump‑Putin meeting and pushing the “no meeting” price higher.
Trump says Putin and he had a two‑hour call and are getting closer to a deal
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 62%5%
Trump announced on Air Force One that he had spoken with Putin for over two hours and that both leaders were “getting a lot closer,” reviving speculation of an imminent meeting and causing a temporary dip in the no‑meeting price.
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon talks with Putin in Moscow
No meeting by June 30 surges to 56%24%
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for marathon talks, confirming that no direct Trump‑Putin meeting was scheduled and pushing the market back toward a “no meeting” outlook.
Trump announces framework for Greenland deal, drops NATO tariff threat
Other EU country drops to 40%6%
The announcement shifted attention to the Arctic and reduced pressure on European allies, lowering the perceived need for a Trump‑Putin meeting in Europe and nudging the market toward a Gulf or Russia outcome.
US cancels Budapest summit after Russia's hardline demands on Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 50%12%
Following Russia's firm stance on territorial concessions and other demands, the US cancelled the planned Budapest summit. This reinforced market skepticism about any near-term meeting between Trump and Putin.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 16%27%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp market decline for the Budapest meeting outcome.
White House says no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting, Budapest summit off
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 38%10%
A White House official announced that the planned Budapest summit was cancelled due to stalled negotiations and Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp drop in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or Russia.
Trump says a second summit with Putin will be in Budapest within two weeks
Other plunges to 0%49%
Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to be held within two weeks, raising expectations of a second meeting and pushing the "Other" and "Turkey" prices lower while the "No meeting" price rose as the market priced the risk of cancellation.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin after productive call
Other surges to 28%15%
Following a two-hour phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This announcement caused a spike in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Revelation of Secret Phone Calls Between Trump and Putin
No meeting by June 30 dips to 32%3%
Bob Woodward's book revealed secret phone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, fueling speculation about their communications but not confirming any in-person meeting, which influenced early market uncertainty.
Trump‑Putin phone call discussed cease‑fire in Kyiv
Russia drops to 45%11%
President Trump said he secured a one‑week pause on Russian strikes on Kyiv after a phone call with Putin, raising hopes of direct talks and moving the market away from a Gulf‑state meeting toward a possible Russia meeting.
Trump says he asked Putin not to target Kyiv for one week during brutal cold spell
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Trump publicly claimed that Putin had agreed not to target Kyiv for a week during a severe cold spell, signalling a direct communication line between the two leaders and fuelling market expectations of a forthcoming meeting.
















警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题