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icon for 美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？
政治·伊朗停火

美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？

icon for 美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？
政治·伊朗停火

美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？

4月 30

4月 30

$38,733,071 交易量

2026-05-15
Polymarket

$38,733,071 交易量

Polymarket

5月22日

$101,424 交易量

<1%

5月31日

$3,200,573 交易量

24%

6月15日

$201,146 交易量

44%

6月30日

$1,639,892 交易量

65%

7月31日

$30,788 交易量

74%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in US-Iran diplomacy center on mediated negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of direct talks in Islamabad in mid-April. The United States maintains firm red lines on uranium enrichment limits and regional security guarantees, while Iran has advanced proposals for phased de-escalation that prioritize reopening maritime routes before broader nuclear discussions. Ongoing backchannel efforts through regional mediators, combined with new US sanctions and public statements from both capitals, reflect persistent gaps that have limited momentum toward a high-level in-person meeting. These dynamics shape trader assessments of timelines for any breakthrough, with upcoming consultations and potential follow-up sessions providing the next catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$38,733,071
结束日期
2026-04-30
市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in US-Iran diplomacy center on mediated negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of direct talks in Islamabad in mid-April. The United States maintains firm red lines on uranium enrichment limits and regional security guarantees, while Iran has advanced proposals for phased de-escalation that prioritize reopening maritime routes before broader nuclear discussions. Ongoing backchannel efforts through regional mediators, combined with new US sanctions and public statements from both capitals, reflect persistent gaps that have limited momentum toward a high-level in-person meeting. These dynamics shape trader assessments of timelines for any breakthrough, with upcoming consultations and potential follow-up sessions providing the next catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$38,733,071
结束日期
2026-04-30
市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 23 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"7月31日"，概率为 74%，其次是"6月30日"，概率为 65%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 74¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 74%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？"已产生 $38.7 million 的总交易量（自Apr 12, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 23 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？"的当前领先者是"7月31日"，概率为 74%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 74%。紧随其后的结果是"6月30日"，概率为 65%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国与伊朗的外交会议在... ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。