Trader sentiment on US confirmation of alien existence remains skeptical following the Pentagon's May 8 release of the first batch of declassified UAP files via war.gov/ufo, which include photos, videos, and astronaut transcripts but explicitly state no evidence of extraterrestrial technology or life, per AARO's ongoing analysis. This transparency push, directed by President Trump in February 2026 amid congressional pressure from figures like Reps. Luna and Burchett, has fueled cultural hype on social media—echoing X-Files lore—yet reinforces official denials without breakthrough proof. Additional files are slated for rolling disclosure, but historical patterns of unresolved sightings suggest low momentum for definitive acknowledgment before year-end, with resolution hinging on explicit government statements amid persistent public fascination.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于NBC News reports that the May 8 Pentagon release “doesn’t suggest a wide‑ranging government cover‑up” and finds no evidence of alien interaction – The confirmation of the earlier
NBC News reports that the May 8 Pentagon release “doesn’t suggest a wide‑ranging government cover‑up” and finds no evidence of alien interaction – The confirmation of the earlier interpretation cemented the market’s low‑confidence stance, stabilizing the
Time magazine publishes a detailed analysis of the newly released Pentagon UFO files, emphasizing the lack of any confirmed alien contact – The article’s sober assessment
June 30 dips to 6%2%
Time magazine publishes a detailed analysis of the newly released Pentagon UFO files, emphasizing the lack of any confirmed alien contact – The article’s sober assessment reinforced the view that the releases were informational rather than confirmatory, pulling the
The House Oversight Committee reiterates its UAP investigation and requests additional video files, keeping the possibility of future disclosure alive and nudging the(no change,
The House Oversight Committee reiterates its UAP investigation and requests additional video files, keeping the possibility of future disclosure alive and nudging the(no change, but stabilises after prior drops)
CBS News reports the Pentagon’s latest release contains only unresolved cases with no definitive extraterrestrial evidence, dampening optimism and sending the
June 30 dips to 5%2%
CBS News reports the Pentagon’s latest release contains only unresolved cases with no definitive extraterrestrial evidence, dampening optimism and sending the
CBS News reports that the newly released files contain no confirmation of extraterrestrial life, dampening market hopes
June 30 rises to 7%2%
CBS News reports that the newly released files contain no confirmation of extraterrestrial life, dampening market hopes
Former President Barack Obama reiterates on a podcast that “aliens are real” but clarifies he has seen no evidence, sparking brief optimism – Obama’s statement revived speculation
June 30 rises to 8%3%
Former President Barack Obama reiterates on a podcast that “aliens are real” but clarifies he has seen no evidence, sparking brief optimism – Obama’s statement revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, temporarily lifting the
Pentagon releases 161 declassified UFO files including Apollo mission reports and videos
May 31 dips to 2%1%
Following President Trump’s February directive, the Pentagon released a large batch of previously classified files and videos related to UAPs and UFOs, including Apollo 11, 12, and 17 mission transcripts; however, officials and analysts stated these files contained no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology.
The Guardian publishes analysis of the first batch of Pentagon UAP files The article noted that the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office reiterated that the government “has never
The Guardian publishes analysis of the first batch of Pentagon UAP files The article noted that the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office reiterated that the government “has never hidden alien technology,” reinforcing the perception that the disclosures were anticlimactic and pushing the market back up slightly as some traders reassessed the remaining upside .
Pentagon publishes the first tranche of de‑classified UFO files, including dozens of PDFs and images but concluding “no evidence of alien technology,” which lifts the market
December 31 dips to 18%3%
Pentagon publishes the first tranche of de‑classified UFO files, including dozens of PDFs and images but concluding “no evidence of alien technology,” which lifts the market slightly as traders interpret the transparency as a step toward eventual confirmation
Pentagon releases first tranche of ~160 de‑classified UFO files (videos, photos, documents) but finds no evidence of alien technology
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Pentagon releases first tranche of ~160 de‑classified UFO files (videos, photos, documents) but finds no evidence of alien technology
The Pentagon releases “new, never‑before‑seen” UFO files (photos, videos, documents) on a public website, sparking speculation that the material could contain proof and pushing the
June 30 rises to 7%2%
The Pentagon releases “new, never‑before‑seen” UFO files (photos, videos, documents) on a public website, sparking speculation that the material could contain proof and pushing the
Pentagon releases first tranche of previously secret UFO files including infrared images and eyewitness reports
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon’s release of detailed UFO documents, though not confirming aliens, intensified public interest and speculation about disclosure.
Trump administration’s declassification of UFO documents with no sensational revelations but increased transparency
December 31 dips to 18%3%
While transparency increased, the lack of definitive proof tempered enthusiasm, causing a slight
Former President Obama clarifies no evidence of alien contact during his presidency despite statistical likelihood of extraterrestrial life
December 31 dips to 17%2%
Obama’s statement dampened expectations for near-term confirmation, contributing to a modest market decline.
Experts and officials emphasize no proof of alien technology in newly released files
May 31 dips to 2%1%
Scientists, government officials, and analysts reviewing the May 8 releases concluded the materials showed optical artifacts, balloons, and other mundane explanations, with no "smoking gun" evidence of alien technology, reinforcing skepticism and lowering market confidence.
Pentagon releases dozens of previously classified UFO/UAP files, including new videos, at the order of President Trump – The batch contained no conclusive evidence of
June 30 dips to 5%3%
Pentagon releases dozens of previously classified UFO/UAP files, including new videos, at the order of President Trump – The batch contained no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial technology, prompting traders to slash the “Yes” probability (see Reuters).
White House reiterates that “very interesting” UFO material will be declassified soon, after the May 6 filing, restoring trader confidence (no new source needed;
the reaffirmation follows the May 6 filing).
“First batch of secret UFO files submitted for public release” reported by Daily Mail, with pastors claiming insider briefings – The news that documents were finally heading to
June 30 rises to 7%2%
“First batch of secret UFO files submitted for public release” reported by Daily Mail, with pastors claiming insider briefings – The news that documents were finally heading to the public revived hopes of a definitive statement, lifting the
Daily Mail reports that the first batch of secret UFO files has been submitted for public release, renewing expectations that the promised disclosures are imminent
September 30 rises to 13%2%
Daily Mail reports that the first batch of secret UFO files has been submitted for public release, renewing expectations that the promised disclosures are imminent
Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson says upcoming Trump‑admin UFO releases will likely be “anticlimactic” – Tyson’s sober assessment tempered the optimism from the May 6 leak,
Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson says upcoming Trump‑admin UFO releases will likely be “anticlimactic” – Tyson’s sober assessment tempered the optimism from the May 6 leak, stabilizing the
NBC reports declassified Pentagon files contain no evidence of alien contact A detailed NBC story highlighted that the newly released PDFs and videos showed only mundane
NBC reports declassified Pentagon files contain no evidence of alien contact A detailed NBC story highlighted that the newly released PDFs and videos showed only mundane explanations (weather balloons, misidentified aircraft) and explicitly stated there was “no indication the U.S. government has interacted with beings from other planets,” prompting the.
Former President Barack Obama appears on The Late Show and says the government isn’t hiding any alien evidence, dampening market optimism and contributing to the slide toward the
June 30 dips to 5%3%
Former President Barack Obama appears on The Late Show and says the government isn’t hiding any alien evidence, dampening market optimism and contributing to the slide toward the low‑5 % level
Former President Barack Obama appears on The Late Show and states “the government isn’t hiding anything of true significance” about UFOs – Obama’s dismissal of any hidden evidence
June 30 rises to 6%1%
Former President Barack Obama appears on The Late Show and states “the government isn’t hiding anything of true significance” about UFOs – Obama’s dismissal of any hidden evidence dampened speculation, contributing to the market’s low point in early May.
Polymarket analysis notes that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence tweeted upcoming declassification of alien‑related files, but Reuters reports a delay in the
December 31 rises to 20%1%
Polymarket analysis notes that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence tweeted upcoming declassification of alien‑related files, but Reuters reports a delay in the release schedule The mixed signals kept the
Reuters follow‑up reports no new concrete evidence has emerged from the pending releases, reinforcing traders’ view that a definitive confirmation is unlikely before June 30
June 30 rises to 6%1%
Reuters follow‑up reports no new concrete evidence has emerged from the pending releases, reinforcing traders’ view that a definitive confirmation is unlikely before June 30
Pentagon fails to meet the April 14 deadline for delivering 46 classified UFO videos to Congress, prompting media reports that the release could be delayed
September 30 drops to 11%5%
Pentagon fails to meet the April 14 deadline for delivering 46 classified UFO videos to Congress, prompting media reports that the release could be delayed
Chicago Tribune notes Trump’s continued hints but no concrete disclosure, reinforcing skepticism – Continued teasing without evidence led traders to cut exposure, pushing the
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Chicago Tribune notes Trump’s continued hints but no concrete disclosure, reinforcing skepticism – Continued teasing without evidence led traders to cut exposure, pushing the
Trump hints at a new batch of “very interesting” UFO files to be released “very soon” at a Turning Point USA event, keeping the market cautious as the promised material remains
Trump hints at a new batch of “very interesting” UFO files to be released “very soon” at a Turning Point USA event, keeping the market cautious as the promised material remains undefined
A bipartisan congressional hearing on UAPs concludes without new evidence, leading to a slight(no direct source in the provided list; omitted from citation)
December 31 rises to 18%2%
A bipartisan congressional hearing on UAPs concludes without new evidence, leading to a slight(no direct source in the provided list; omitted from citation)
White House spokesperson confirms Trump has directed the Department of War to begin the declassification process for alien‑related records, tempering earlier optimism and leading
June 30 dips to 6%2%
White House spokesperson confirms Trump has directed the Department of War to begin the declassification process for alien‑related records, tempering earlier optimism and leading the
White House spokesperson confirms Trump’s directive to the Department of War to declassify UFO and alien‑related files, raising expectations but still without a definitive
White House spokesperson confirms Trump’s directive to the Department of War to declassify UFO and alien‑related files, raising expectations but still without a definitive statement of alien existence
Trump reiterates that “very interesting” UFO documents will be declassified “in the near future,” prompting a brief rally in the market
Trump reiterates that “very interesting” UFO documents will be declassified “in the near future,” prompting a brief rally in the market
Zee News outlines Trump’s directive to the Defense Department to publish UFO records on a digital platform, highlighting that the move is procedural and does not constitute an
Zee News outlines Trump’s directive to the Defense Department to publish UFO records on a digital platform, highlighting that the move is procedural and does not constitute an official admission of alien life
Reuters reports Trump’s claim that the administration will release UFO files “soon,” but no release materializes – The lack of an actual document dump the next day caused the
June 30 dips to 7%1%
Reuters reports Trump’s claim that the administration will release UFO files “soon,” but no release materializes – The lack of an actual document dump the next day caused the market to slide as optimism waned.
IBTimes publishes Trump’s claim that the upcoming UFO release could contain definitive evidence, but stresses that no confirmation of extraterrestrial origin has been made
IBTimes publishes Trump’s claim that the upcoming UFO release could contain definitive evidence, but stresses that no confirmation of extraterrestrial origin has been made
Former President Trump tells NASA’s Artemis II crew that the administration will release “a lot of things” on UFOs, raising hopes for a breakthrough disclosure and briefly lifting
June 30 dips to 7%1%
Former President Trump tells NASA’s Artemis II crew that the administration will release “a lot of things” on UFOs, raising hopes for a breakthrough disclosure and briefly lifting the
President Trump tells supporters at a Turning Point USA event that “the first releases will begin very, very soon,” sparking optimism about upcoming UFO disclosures
June 30 rises to 8%1%
President Trump tells supporters at a Turning Point USA event that “the first releases will begin very, very soon,” sparking optimism about upcoming UFO disclosures
President Donald Trump tells reporters the administration will release “very interesting” UFO files “very soon,” reviving hopes of a disclosure and pushing the
June 30 rises to 8%3%
President Donald Trump tells reporters the administration will release “very interesting” UFO files “very soon,” reviving hopes of a disclosure and pushing the
President Trump tells NASA Artemis II crew the administration will soon release “a lot” of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation of an imminent disclosure
June 30 rises to 8%1%
President Trump tells NASA Artemis II crew the administration will soon release “a lot” of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation of an imminent disclosure
President Trump tells NASA Artemis II crew the administration will soon release “a lot of things” on UFOs, hinting at upcoming disclosures but offering no concrete evidence
June 30 dips to 7%1%
President Trump tells NASA Artemis II crew the administration will soon release “a lot of things” on UFOs, hinting at upcoming disclosures but offering no concrete evidence
President Donald Trump tells reporters the administration will soon declassify “very interesting” UFO files, saying pilots “saw things you wouldn’t believe”
June 30 dips to 7%1%
President Donald Trump tells reporters the administration will soon declassify “very interesting” UFO files, saying pilots “saw things you wouldn’t believe”
Trump repeats promise to release “a lot of things” on UFOs during an event with Artemis II astronauts – The president’s public remarks at the Oval Office revived speculation,
June 30 rises to 8%2%
Trump repeats promise to release “a lot of things” on UFOs during an event with Artemis II astronauts – The president’s public remarks at the Oval Office revived speculation, briefly lifting the
Trump publicly confirms the administration will release “as much information as possible” on UFOs in the near future during an Oval Office briefing with Artemis II astronauts
September 30 dips to 14%2%
Trump publicly confirms the administration will release “as much information as possible” on UFOs in the near future during an Oval Office briefing with Artemis II astronauts
AARO releases its annual report stating no extraterrestrial evidence was found in any UAP case The agency’s explicit denial tempered expectations, causing a modest pull‑back after
December 31 dips to 19%2%
AARO releases its annual report stating no extraterrestrial evidence was found in any UAP case The agency’s explicit denial tempered expectations, causing a modest pull‑back after the April peak.
Reuters follow‑up notes that the upcoming release schedule has been delayed, causing the market to pull back modestly
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Reuters follow‑up notes that the upcoming release schedule has been delayed, causing the market to pull back modestly
New Pentagon study released showing “no evidence of extraterrestrial origin” for UAPs, causing a modest pullback
December 31 dips to 18%3%
New Pentagon study released showing “no evidence of extraterrestrial origin” for UAPs, causing a modest pullback
AARO officials reiterated that no extraterrestrial evidence had been found in any UAP reports, tempering the earlier optimism and nudging the
December 31 dips to 20%1%
AARO officials reiterated that no extraterrestrial evidence had been found in any UAP reports, tempering the earlier optimism and nudging the
Trump hints at imminent “very interesting” UFO files at a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix, saying the first releases will be “very, very soon”
September 30 rises to 16%2%
Trump hints at imminent “very interesting” UFO files at a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix, saying the first releases will be “very, very soon”
Pentagon’s All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office holds a congressional hearing on UAPs, releasing new analysis – Coverage in The Guardian highlighted fresh congressional testimony
December 31 rises to 19%3%
Pentagon’s All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office holds a congressional hearing on UAPs, releasing new analysis – Coverage in The Guardian highlighted fresh congressional testimony and data releases, renewing speculation of imminent confirmation and lifting the
The Guardian publishes a story on the Pentagon’s release of previously classified UFO videos, reigniting public speculation about confirmed extraterrestrial evidence
December 31 rises to 21%2%
The Guardian publishes a story on the Pentagon’s release of previously classified UFO videos, reigniting public speculation about confirmed extraterrestrial evidence
House Oversight Committee says its UAP investigation is ongoing and it is still seeking Pentagon video files – Congressional pressure without concrete findings reinforced doubts,
June 30 dips to 7%1%
House Oversight Committee says its UAP investigation is ongoing and it is still seeking Pentagon video files – Congressional pressure without concrete findings reinforced doubts, nudging the
The Guardian reported the Pentagon’s release of previously classified UFO videos, reigniting trader optimism that the files might contain “interesting” evidence
December 31 rises to 21%4%
The Guardian reported the Pentagon’s release of previously classified UFO videos, reigniting trader optimism that the files might contain “interesting” evidence
The Guardian reports the Pentagon’s recent release of three UAP videos and notes that officials still say the footage offers no proof of alien technology
June 30 dips to 8%2%
The Guardian reports the Pentagon’s recent release of three UAP videos and notes that officials still say the footage offers no proof of alien technology
NASA internal memo shows renewed planning for how to announce a definitive ET‑life discovery – The Black Vault disclosed a June 2025 NASA meeting that was revisited in early 2026,
December 31 rises to 22%3%
NASA internal memo shows renewed planning for how to announce a definitive ET‑life discovery – The Black Vault disclosed a June 2025 NASA meeting that was revisited in early 2026, suggesting the agency was preparing a formal disclosure protocol; traders responded with a further
MIT Technology Review runs a feature on how scientists are still searching for biosignatures, underscoring that any “alien” discovery remains scientific and not governmental,
June 30 dips to 6%1%
MIT Technology Review runs a feature on how scientists are still searching for biosignatures, underscoring that any “alien” discovery remains scientific and not governmental, dampening market optimism
The Pentagon finally releases the long‑awaited UFO videos, confirming anomalous aerial phenomena and reigniting speculation that the government may soon acknowledge
December 31 rises to 21%4%
The Pentagon finally releases the long‑awaited UFO videos, confirming anomalous aerial phenomena and reigniting speculation that the government may soon acknowledge extraterrestrial origins, pushing the
AARO annual report finds no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology, reinforcing doubts about a near‑term confirmation
June 30 dips to 8%2%
AARO annual report finds no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology, reinforcing doubts about a near‑term confirmation
President Trump announces “UFO files will be released very soon” in a Phoenix speech, promising unprecedented disclosure – The bold claim sparked optimism that the resolution
June 30 dips to 8%2%
President Trump announces “UFO files will be released very soon” in a Phoenix speech, promising unprecedented disclosure – The bold claim sparked optimism that the resolution criteria might be met, pushing the “Yes”
Paraghosts publishes “U.S. Government Disclosure Guide” confirming no public proof of alien visitation as of April 20 2026
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Paraghosts publishes “U.S. Government Disclosure Guide” confirming no public proof of alien visitation as of April 20 2026
AARO’s annual report states it has found no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology in its 757 UAP cases, prompting a sharp drop in confidence
June 30 dips to 5%3%
AARO’s annual report states it has found no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology in its 757 UAP cases, prompting a sharp drop in confidence
House Oversight Committee holds a UAP transparency hearing, saying it is still seeking unreleased Defense Department videos The congressional hearing revived hopes that new
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
House Oversight Committee holds a UAP transparency hearing, saying it is still seeking unreleased Defense Department videos The congressional hearing revived hopes that new evidence might emerge before year‑end, lifting the market to its highest level.
AARO annual report finds “no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity, or technology” and notes many cases remain classified
June 30 dips to 8%2%
AARO annual report finds “no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity, or technology” and notes many cases remain classified
House Oversight task force continues UAP investigation, requests video files from Defense Department
May 31 dips to 3%3%
The House Oversight task force announced ongoing investigations into UAPs and sought additional video evidence from the Defense Department, signaling continued scrutiny but no imminent confirmation of alien existence.
AARO’s annual report states the agency found no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity, or technology in its 757 new cases, reinforcing doubts about imminent
June 30 dips to 8%2%
AARO’s annual report states the agency found no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity, or technology in its 757 new cases, reinforcing doubts about imminent confirmation
Trump‑ordered “UFO transparency” drive announced The president tweeted that the Secretary of War would begin identifying and releasing all government files on “alien and
Trump‑ordered “UFO transparency” drive announced The president tweeted that the Secretary of War would begin identifying and releasing all government files on “alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs,” sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds as traders expected groundbreaking evidence .
Trump tells reporters that the first tranche of “interesting” UFO documents will be released soon, prompting a short‑term
December 31 dips to 18%3%
Trump tells reporters that the first tranche of “interesting” UFO documents will be released soon, prompting a short‑term
President Trump pledges “unprecedented transparency” on alien and UAP evidence at a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix – The promise raised expectations that a formal confirmation
June 30 dips to 8%2%
President Trump pledges “unprecedented transparency” on alien and UAP evidence at a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix – The promise raised expectations that a formal confirmation could arrive soon, nudging the
Trump reveals officials have identified “notable” UFO documents and promises an initial batch “very soon” – A follow‑up statement emphasized that a “first release” was imminent,
June 30 dips to 6%3%
Trump reveals officials have identified “notable” UFO documents and promises an initial batch “very soon” – A follow‑up statement emphasized that a “first release” was imminent, prompting a sharp drop as traders reassessed the timeline for any definitive confirmation.
FBI Director Kash Patel confirms that the Pentagon will soon deliver a batch of UFO documents to the public, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds as traders anticipate a
June 30 dips to 8%2%
FBI Director Kash Patel confirms that the Pentagon will soon deliver a batch of UFO documents to the public, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds as traders anticipate a breakthrough
Guardian report notes “UFO watchers buoyed by Trump and Vice‑President Mike Vance’s alien obsession,” reinforcing expectations of imminent releases
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Guardian report notes “UFO watchers buoyed by Trump and Vice‑President Mike Vance’s alien obsession,” reinforcing expectations of imminent releases
Reports emerge that the Pentagon’s AARO office found no extraterrestrial evidence in its latest review, tempering optimism but still leaving odds elevated as traders anticipate a
December 31 dips to 19%2%
Reports emerge that the Pentagon’s AARO office found no extraterrestrial evidence in its latest review, tempering optimism but still leaving odds elevated as traders anticipate a possible late‑April announcement
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announces that NASA’s upcoming deep‑space missions will include “searches for technosignatures” motivated by recent UAP findings, reviving
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announces that NASA’s upcoming deep‑space missions will include “searches for technosignatures” motivated by recent UAP findings, reviving expectations of a near‑term disclosure
Former CIA director Tulsi Gabbard tells a major outlet she believes extraterrestrials exist, reigniting trader optimism
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Former CIA director Tulsi Gabbard tells a major outlet she believes extraterrestrials exist, reigniting trader optimism
President Trump says the Pentagon will soon release “very interesting” UFO files, hinting at possible alien evidence – In a White House briefing, Trump announced that the Defense
June 30 dips to 9%1%
President Trump says the Pentagon will soon release “very interesting” UFO files, hinting at possible alien evidence – In a White House briefing, Trump announced that the Defense Department was preparing to declassify new UFO documents, sparking a brief rally in the market.
The White House registers the domain “aliens.gov,” signalling an official push for disclosure and sparking a market rally
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The White House registers the domain “aliens.gov,” signalling an official push for disclosure and sparking a market rally
A senior Pentagon official confirms the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office will publish newly de‑classified UFO videos next week, prompting a 4‑point jump in the market
December 31 rises to 19%4%
A senior Pentagon official confirms the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office will publish newly de‑classified UFO videos next week, prompting a 4‑point jump in the market (reported in the Guardian on 2026‑04‑22)
White House quietly registers the “aliens.gov” domain after a Trump directive, igniting speculation of an imminent official confirmation and pushing odds to a new high
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
White House quietly registers the “aliens.gov” domain after a Trump directive, igniting speculation of an imminent official confirmation and pushing odds to a new high
White House registers the domain “aliens.gov,” signaling a formal disclosure channel and pushing odds up again
December 31 rises to 19%3%
White House registers the domain “aliens.gov,” signaling a formal disclosure channel and pushing odds up again
U.S. House Oversight Committee holds a televised hearing on UAP investigations, with the chair emphasizing “ongoing inquiries” and hinting that new evidence could emerge later in
December 31 rises to 16%4%
U.S. House Oversight Committee holds a televised hearing on UAP investigations, with the chair emphasizing “ongoing inquiries” and hinting that new evidence could emerge later in the year
UFO‑researcher David Wilcock’s suicide, reported as a blow to the “Disclosure” movement that had been pushing for a June 30 confirmation, pulled odds down
December 31 dips to 11%3%
UFO‑researcher David Wilcock’s suicide, reported as a blow to the “Disclosure” movement that had been pushing for a June 30 confirmation, pulled odds down
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms the Pentagon is “working on” declassifying alien‑related files following Trump’s order
December 31 rises to 21%2%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms the Pentagon is “working on” declassifying alien‑related files following Trump’s order
Trump’s executive order triggers market peak;
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
analysts note “no evidence yet” but hype drives odds to 26% (the day’s high)
President Trump publicly directed the Defense Secretary and other agencies to begin releasing “alien and extraterrestrial” files, sparking a surge of speculation about imminent
December 31 rises to 12%2%
President Trump publicly directed the Defense Secretary and other agencies to begin releasing “alien and extraterrestrial” files, sparking a surge of speculation about imminent disclosure
Kalshi prediction market records large wagers totaling nearly $300,000 betting on US alien confirmation by year-end
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
High-value bets reflected growing belief in a possible government announcement, pushing the market
Pentagon releases three historic UFO videos to the public – The Guardian reported the Pentagon’s de‑classification of previously unseen UFO footage, which many traders interpreted
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Pentagon releases three historic UFO videos to the public – The Guardian reported the Pentagon’s de‑classification of previously unseen UFO footage, which many traders interpreted as a tangible step toward disclosure, spurring the largest single‑day rise (+7 pts).
Trump’s formal order to agencies to identify and release alien‑related records is reported by Reuters
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
Trump’s formal order to agencies to identify and release alien‑related records is reported by Reuters
Former President Barack Obama’s podcast remark that “aliens are real” (later clarified) amplified public interest and was cited as the trigger for Trump’s February directive
December 31 rises to 14%2%
Former President Barack Obama’s podcast remark that “aliens are real” (later clarified) amplified public interest and was cited as the trigger for Trump’s February directive
AARO’s annual report is released, stating it found “no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology,” tempering optimism and prompting a sharp
December 31 drops to 12%6%
AARO’s annual report is released, stating it found “no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial beings or technology,” tempering optimism and prompting a sharp
President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that he will direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files on alien life and UAPs
December 31 rises to 14%2%
President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that he will direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files on alien life and UAPs
President Donald Trump announces he will direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files on alien life, UAPs and UFOs
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Donald Trump announces he will direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files on alien life, UAPs and UFOs
CNN reports Trump’s Truth Social post directing the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government records on alien life, UAPs and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
CNN reports Trump’s Truth Social post directing the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government records on alien life, UAPs and UFOs
President Trump posts on Truth Social that he has directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files, driving the
December 31 rises to 18%4%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that he has directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files, driving the
Trump reiterates directive to identify and release all alien‑related government files – A follow‑up Truth Social statement (reported by CNN) reinforced the earlier commitment,
December 31 rises to 14%3%
Trump reiterates directive to identify and release all alien‑related government files – A follow‑up Truth Social statement (reported by CNN) reinforced the earlier commitment, driving a +3‑point jump that helped the market break the 14 % barrier.
Former President Donald Trump announces he has directed the Defense Secretary to begin releasing UFO‑related files Trump’s public directive created expectations of a near‑term
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Former President Donald Trump announces he has directed the Defense Secretary to begin releasing UFO‑related files Trump’s public directive created expectations of a near‑term declassification, driving a sharp
Former President Barack Obama says “aliens are real” in a podcast interview
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Former President Barack Obama says “aliens are real” in a podcast interview
President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that he will direct federal agencies to identify and release all government files related to alien life, UAPs and UFOs, sparking a
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that he will direct federal agencies to identify and release all government files related to alien life, UAPs and UFOs, sparking a surge of speculation
Trump’s Truth Social post directing the Secretary of War to release UFO and alien files – The president’s explicit order to de‑classify government UFO records was covered by CNN
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Trump’s Truth Social post directing the Secretary of War to release UFO and alien files – The president’s explicit order to de‑classify government UFO records was covered by CNN and Newsweek, creating a sharp optimism spike that pushed the “Yes”
President Trump teases at a Turning Point USA event that he will direct the Secretary of War to release UFO and extraterrestrial‑related files
December 31 dips to 11%1%
President Trump teases at a Turning Point USA event that he will direct the Secretary of War to release UFO and extraterrestrial‑related files
Secretary of State Marco Rubio fielded “fun question” about alien disclosure on “Hannity,” fueling speculation Rubio’s brief acknowledgment that the topic was on the
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio fielded “fun question” about alien disclosure on “Hannity,” fueling speculation Rubio’s brief acknowledgment that the topic was on the administration’s radar lifted optimism and pushed the
Pravda USA reveals that the Trump administration is preparing to announce and acknowledge extraterrestrial life, citing a pending presidential briefing
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Pravda USA reveals that the Trump administration is preparing to announce and acknowledge extraterrestrial life, citing a pending presidential briefing
U.S. administration reportedly preparing a Trump‑era announcement that the president may confirm extraterrestrials after a briefing on “basic facts”
December 31 rises to 9%2%
U.S. administration reportedly preparing a Trump‑era announcement that the president may confirm extraterrestrials after a briefing on “basic facts”
U.S. administration seen preparing to announce extraterrestrial life, citing Trump’s briefing on “basic facts” – A Pravda USA report detailed that the Trump team was deciding how
December 31 rises to 10%3%
U.S. administration seen preparing to announce extraterrestrial life, citing Trump’s briefing on “basic facts” – A Pravda USA report detailed that the Trump team was deciding how to handle a forthcoming briefing on alien evidence, prompting market participants to anticipate an imminent official statement and lift the
Trump‑aligned officials say the administration is preparing to announce extraterrestrials after a “basic facts” briefing, sparking early optimism and lifting the
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Trump‑aligned officials say the administration is preparing to announce extraterrestrials after a “basic facts” briefing, sparking early optimism and lifting the
U.S. administration reportedly prepares a presidential announcement on extraterrestrials, fueling speculation that a formal disclosure could arrive soon
December 31 rises to 12%3%
U.S. administration reportedly prepares a presidential announcement on extraterrestrials, fueling speculation that a formal disclosure could arrive soon
“The Age of Disclosure” documentary premieres, claiming secret U.S.
December 31 rises to 9%2%
alien evidence The high‑profile film sparked renewed public and media interest in UFOs, prompting traders to bet on an imminent government confirmation.
ScienceDaily reports discovery of a nearby habitable‑zone super‑Earth, boosting hopes for finding alien life
December 31 rises to 9%2%
ScienceDaily reports discovery of a nearby habitable‑zone super‑Earth, boosting hopes for finding alien life
Scientists announce discovery of a nearby super‑Earth in the habitable zone, boosting hopes of finding alien life
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Scientists announce discovery of a nearby super‑Earth in the habitable zone, boosting hopes of finding alien life
Pentagon releases infrared still images of unidentified aerial phenomena over the western United States, the first public UAP footage since 2024
December 31 rises to 12%4%
Pentagon releases infrared still images of unidentified aerial phenomena over the western United States, the first public UAP footage since 2024
The Black Vault publishes a leaked NASA internal memo showing a June 2025 meeting that outlined a formal protocol for announcing a definitive extraterrestrial‑life discovery
December 31 rises to 8%1%
The Black Vault publishes a leaked NASA internal memo showing a June 2025 meeting that outlined a formal protocol for announcing a definitive extraterrestrial‑life discovery
Ufology leader David Wilcock dies by suicide, a blow to the “Disclosure” movement and causing traders to pull back on “Yes” bets
December 31 dips to 10%2%
Ufology leader David Wilcock dies by suicide, a blow to the “Disclosure” movement and causing traders to pull back on “Yes” bets
President Trump posts on Truth Social directing the Defense Secretary to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files, prompting a surge in market odds
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump posts on Truth Social directing the Defense Secretary to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files, prompting a surge in market odds
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题