Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at 66% implied probability, driven by persistent regulatory delays from the FAA and the slow historical ramp-up in flight test cadence—only five integrated flight tests occurred in 2025 despite ambitious goals. Recent setbacks include multiple postponements of the first 2026 mission, Starship Flight Test 12 featuring the debut V3 Super Heavy booster and Ship with upgraded Raptor 3 engines, now targeting mid-May from Starbase's new Pad 2 after successful 33-engine static fires. While SpaceX eyes 25 launches annually via rapid reusability and tower catches, skeptics cite ongoing license constraints and technical risks for the year's remainder, with IFT-12 success pivotal for momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于5次 66%
5-6 27%
7-8 5.5%
9-10 2.1%
$448,649 交易量
$448,649 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
66%
5-6
24%
7-8
6%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
1%
>16
2%
少于5次 66%
5-6 27%
7-8 5.5%
9-10 2.1%
$448,649 交易量
$448,649 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
$90,441 交易量
66%
5-6
$108,260 交易量
24%
7-8
$151,817 交易量
6%
9-10
$55,592 交易量
2%
11-12
$3,765 交易量
2%
13-14
$4,725 交易量
1%
15-16
$25,000 交易量
1%
>16
$9,048 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at 66% implied probability, driven by persistent regulatory delays from the FAA and the slow historical ramp-up in flight test cadence—only five integrated flight tests occurred in 2025 despite ambitious goals. Recent setbacks include multiple postponements of the first 2026 mission, Starship Flight Test 12 featuring the debut V3 Super Heavy booster and Ship with upgraded Raptor 3 engines, now targeting mid-May from Starbase's new Pad 2 after successful 33-engine static fires. While SpaceX eyes 25 launches annually via rapid reusability and tower catches, skeptics cite ongoing license constraints and technical risks for the year's remainder, with IFT-12 success pivotal for momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$448,649结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at 66% implied probability, driven by persistent regulatory delays from the FAA and the slow historical ramp-up in flight test cadence—only five integrated flight tests occurred in 2025 despite ambitious goals. Recent setbacks include multiple postponements of the first 2026 mission, Starship Flight Test 12 featuring the debut V3 Super Heavy booster and Ship with upgraded Raptor 3 engines, now targeting mid-May from Starbase's new Pad 2 after successful 33-engine static fires. While SpaceX eyes 25 launches annually via rapid reusability and tower catches, skeptics cite ongoing license constraints and technical risks for the year's remainder, with IFT-12 success pivotal for momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$448,649结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at 66% implied probability, driven by persistent regulatory delays from the FAA and the slow historical ramp-up in flight test cadence—only five integrated flight tests occurred in 2025 despite ambitious goals. Recent setbacks include multiple postponements of the first 2026 mission, Starship Flight Test 12 featuring the debut V3 Super Heavy booster and Ship with upgraded Raptor 3 engines, now targeting mid-May from Starbase's new Pad 2 after successful 33-engine static fires. While SpaceX eyes 25 launches annually via rapid reusability and tower catches, skeptics cite ongoing license constraints and technical risks for the year's remainder, with IFT-12 success pivotal for momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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