Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by repeated delays since its 2021 announcement and absence from SpaceX Falcon 9 manifests despite a targeted mid-2026 window on the official Geometric Energy site. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment—"maybe next year," implying 2027—further eroded confidence after the first half of 2026 passed without progress, reflecting historical patterns of rideshare scheduling slips for secondary payloads. Upcoming SpaceX Transporter mission announcements or final integration confirmations could shift odds if a firm H2 2026 slot emerges, though inherent uncertainties in launch manifests and orbital alignment persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Doge-1月球任务会在2027年之前启动吗？
Doge-1月球任务会在2027年之前启动吗？
是
$798,326 交易量
$798,326 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$798,326 交易量
$798,326 交易量
2026-12-31
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by repeated delays since its 2021 announcement and absence from SpaceX Falcon 9 manifests despite a targeted mid-2026 window on the official Geometric Energy site. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment—"maybe next year," implying 2027—further eroded confidence after the first half of 2026 passed without progress, reflecting historical patterns of rideshare scheduling slips for secondary payloads. Upcoming SpaceX Transporter mission announcements or final integration confirmations could shift odds if a firm H2 2026 slot emerges, though inherent uncertainties in launch manifests and orbital alignment persist.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$798,326结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by repeated delays since its 2021 announcement and absence from SpaceX Falcon 9 manifests despite a targeted mid-2026 window on the official Geometric Energy site. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment—"maybe next year," implying 2027—further eroded confidence after the first half of 2026 passed without progress, reflecting historical patterns of rideshare scheduling slips for secondary payloads. Upcoming SpaceX Transporter mission announcements or final integration confirmations could shift odds if a firm H2 2026 slot emerges, though inherent uncertainties in launch manifests and orbital alignment persist.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
交易量
$798,326结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by repeated delays since its 2021 announcement and absence from SpaceX Falcon 9 manifests despite a targeted mid-2026 window on the official Geometric Energy site. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment—"maybe next year," implying 2027—further eroded confidence after the first half of 2026 passed without progress, reflecting historical patterns of rideshare scheduling slips for secondary payloads. Upcoming SpaceX Transporter mission announcements or final integration confirmations could shift odds if a firm H2 2026 slot emerges, though inherent uncertainties in launch manifests and orbital alignment persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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