Persistent delays in Intuitive Machines' IM-2 mission, the rideshare for the Dogecoin-funded Doge-1 nanosatellite, drive the 96.3% market-implied probability against a pre-2027 launch, following the IM-1 lander's crash in February 2024 and repeated missed NET dates since the 2021 announcement. Geometric Energy Corporation reports payload integration complete, but SpaceX Falcon 9 manifest constraints and Intuitive Machines' financial strains signal further slippage, with IM-2 now targeting early 2025 amid NASA CLPS scrutiny. Historical commercial lunar precedents show frequent multi-year postponements due to propulsion testing and regulatory hurdles. A slim chance for liftoff persists if IM-2 accelerates via an open launch slot, though engineering risks temper optimism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Doge-1月球任务会在2027年之前启动吗？
Doge-1月球任务会在2027年之前启动吗？
是
$686,085 交易量
$686,085 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$686,085 交易量
$686,085 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$686,085结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
交易量
$686,085结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent delays in Intuitive Machines' IM-2 mission, the rideshare for the Dogecoin-funded Doge-1 nanosatellite, drive the 96.3% market-implied probability against a pre-2027 launch, following the IM-1 lander's crash in February 2024 and repeated missed NET dates since the 2021 announcement. Geometric Energy Corporation reports payload integration complete, but SpaceX Falcon 9 manifest constraints and Intuitive Machines' financial strains signal further slippage, with IM-2 now targeting early 2025 amid NASA CLPS scrutiny. Historical commercial lunar precedents show frequent multi-year postponements due to propulsion testing and regulatory hurdles. A slim chance for liftoff persists if IM-2 accelerates via an open launch slot, though engineering risks temper optimism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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