Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 38% implied probability, reflecting extrapolated ramp-up from 2024's record 138 Falcon 9/Heavy flights amid Starship's maturation. Recent catalysts include successful Starship Flight Test 6 in November 2024, enabling orbital launch infrastructure at Starbase with dual pads, and Elon Musk's projections for 150+ launches in 2025 via boosted reuse rates nearing 30 flights per booster. Differentiating factors hinge on Starship cadence—potentially 50+ annually if monthly flights materialize post-FAA approvals—versus risks from anomaly investigations, supply chain bottlenecks, and weather-dependent windows at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg. Upcoming Flight Test 7 and Block 2 engine tests by early 2025 will clarify if 200+ is feasible or if regulatory hurdles cap at lower bins; historical reusability gains support the mid-range lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
160-179 38%
140-159 35.8%
200次或更多 19%
180-199 11.9%
$104,504 交易量
$104,504 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
4%
100-119
<1%
120-139
12%
140-159
36%
160-179
38%
180-199
12%
200次或更多
19%
160-179 38%
140-159 35.8%
200次或更多 19%
180-199 11.9%
$104,504 交易量
$104,504 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
$0 交易量
4%
100-119
$0 交易量
<1%
120-139
$0 交易量
12%
140-159
$32,225 交易量
36%
160-179
$72,279 交易量
38%
180-199
$0 交易量
12%
200次或更多
$0 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
交易量
$104,504结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$104,504结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 38% implied probability, reflecting extrapolated ramp-up from 2024's record 138 Falcon 9/Heavy flights amid Starship's maturation. Recent catalysts include successful Starship Flight Test 6 in November 2024, enabling orbital launch infrastructure at Starbase with dual pads, and Elon Musk's projections for 150+ launches in 2025 via boosted reuse rates nearing 30 flights per booster. Differentiating factors hinge on Starship cadence—potentially 50+ annually if monthly flights materialize post-FAA approvals—versus risks from anomaly investigations, supply chain bottlenecks, and weather-dependent windows at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg. Upcoming Flight Test 7 and Block 2 engine tests by early 2025 will clarify if 200+ is feasible or if regulatory hurdles cap at lower bins; historical reusability gains support the mid-range lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题