SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence has sustained a blistering pace into early May 2026, achieving over 50 orbital missions by late April amid high Starlink deployment demand and near-perfect reusability, with the 600th booster landing on April 19. This trajectory implies a trader consensus for 140-179 total launches, closely split between 140-159 (35.5%) and 160-179 (36.5%) due to President Gwynne Shotwell's recent projection of "140, 145-ish" Falcon flights, offset by accelerating Starship tests—highlighted by Super Heavy V3's full-thrust static fire on May 7 and first V3 stack on May 9 ahead of Flight 12. Key uncertainties include FAA approvals for higher Starship rates, pad throughput at Starbase and Cape Canaveral, and potential supply chain constraints; watch for Flight 12 outcome and June manifest updates to tip the balance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
160-179 37%
140-159 35.5%
180-199 12.2%
200次或更多 5%
$301,675 交易量
$301,675 交易量
少于100
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
4%
140-159
36%
160-179
37%
180-199
12%
200次或更多
5%
160-179 37%
140-159 35.5%
180-199 12.2%
200次或更多 5%
$301,675 交易量
$301,675 交易量
少于100
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
4%
140-159
36%
160-179
37%
180-199
12%
200次或更多
5%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence has sustained a blistering pace into early May 2026, achieving over 50 orbital missions by late April amid high Starlink deployment demand and near-perfect reusability, with the 600th booster landing on April 19. This trajectory implies a trader consensus for 140-179 total launches, closely split between 140-159 (35.5%) and 160-179 (36.5%) due to President Gwynne Shotwell's recent projection of "140, 145-ish" Falcon flights, offset by accelerating Starship tests—highlighted by Super Heavy V3's full-thrust static fire on May 7 and first V3 stack on May 9 ahead of Flight 12. Key uncertainties include FAA approvals for higher Starship rates, pad throughput at Starbase and Cape Canaveral, and potential supply chain constraints; watch for Flight 12 outcome and June manifest updates to tip the balance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题