Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging ahead at 34.5% implied probability amid the company's record 2024 pace exceeding 130 flights, fueled by Starlink satellite deployments and Falcon 9 booster reusability hitting new highs. Recent Starship Flight Test 5 success in October—achieving soft splashdowns and heat shield improvements—bolsters optimism for scaling beyond current pad constraints at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, but close odds reflect uncertainties in rapid Starship reuse, orbital refueling demos, and FAA licensing timelines. Historical analogs show cadence doubling every 2-3 years, yet production ramps for Raptor engines and Starfactory output remain key differentiators. Watch Q1 2025 test flights and annual targets for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
160-179 35%
140-159 32.5%
200次或更多 19%
180-199 12.0%
$103,111 交易量
$103,111 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
4%
100-119
<1%
120-139
13%
140-159
33%
160-179
35%
180-199
12%
200次或更多
19%
160-179 35%
140-159 32.5%
200次或更多 19%
180-199 12.0%
$103,111 交易量
$103,111 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
少于100
$0 交易量
4%
100-119
$0 交易量
<1%
120-139
$0 交易量
13%
140-159
$30,832 交易量
33%
160-179
$72,279 交易量
35%
180-199
$0 交易量
12%
200次或更多
$0 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
交易量
$103,111结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$103,111结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging ahead at 34.5% implied probability amid the company's record 2024 pace exceeding 130 flights, fueled by Starlink satellite deployments and Falcon 9 booster reusability hitting new highs. Recent Starship Flight Test 5 success in October—achieving soft splashdowns and heat shield improvements—bolsters optimism for scaling beyond current pad constraints at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, but close odds reflect uncertainties in rapid Starship reuse, orbital refueling demos, and FAA licensing timelines. Historical analogs show cadence doubling every 2-3 years, yet production ramps for Raptor engines and Starfactory output remain key differentiators. Watch Q1 2025 test flights and annual targets for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题