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气候与科学·科学

2026年的自然灾害？

Market icon
气候与科学·科学

2026年的自然灾害？

是

30% chance
Polymarket

$188,824 交易量

是

30% chance
Polymarket

$188,824 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of ultra-rare events through late March per authoritative sources: no magnitude M8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), Category 5 hurricanes with U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA), or 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts (NASA CNEOS). A recent M7.5 quake near Tonga fell short of the threshold, underscoring the rarity of these phenomena—global M8.5+ events average fewer than one per decade, while U.S. Cat 5 landfalls occur roughly once every 3–5 years historically. ENSO-neutral conditions persist, potentially moderating Atlantic hurricane intensification ahead of NOAA's May outlook; seismic and volcanic monitoring will provide key updates throughout the year.

Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of ultra-rare events through late March per authoritative sources: no magnitude M8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), Category 5 hurricanes with U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA), or 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts (NASA CNEOS). A recent M7.5 quake near Tonga fell short of the threshold, underscoring the rarity of these phenomena—global M8.5+ events average fewer than one per decade, while U.S. Cat 5 landfalls occur roughly once every 3–5 years historically. ENSO-neutral conditions persist, potentially moderating Atlantic hurricane intensification ahead of NOAA's May outlook; seismic and volcanic monitoring will provide key updates throughout the year.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of ultra-rare events through late March per authoritative sources: no magnitude M8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), Category 5 hurricanes with U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA), or 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts (NASA CNEOS). A recent M7.5 quake near Tonga fell short of the threshold, underscoring the rarity of these phenomena—global M8.5+ events average fewer than one per decade, while U.S. Cat 5 landfalls occur roughly once every 3–5 years historically. ENSO-neutral conditions persist, potentially moderating Atlantic hurricane intensification ahead of NOAA's May outlook; seismic and volcanic monitoring will provide key updates throughout the year.

Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of ultra-rare events through late March per authoritative sources: no magnitude M8.5+ earthquakes (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), Category 5 hurricanes with U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA), or 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts (NASA CNEOS). A recent M7.5 quake near Tonga fell short of the threshold, underscoring the rarity of these phenomena—global M8.5+ events average fewer than one per decade, while U.S. Cat 5 landfalls occur roughly once every 3–5 years historically. ENSO-neutral conditions persist, potentially moderating Atlantic hurricane intensification ahead of NOAA's May outlook; seismic and volcanic monitoring will provide key updates throughout the year.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年的自然灾害？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年会有自然灾害吗？"，概率为 30%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 30¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 30%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年的自然灾害？"已产生 $188.8K 的总交易量（自Dec 31, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年的自然灾害？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年的自然灾害？"的当前领先者是"2026年会有自然灾害吗？"，概率为 30%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 30%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年的自然灾害？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。