Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 70.5% probability of no major natural disaster in 2026, reflecting stable climatological and geological baselines amid absent signals of elevated risk. Following the hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—marked by Helene and Milton—NOAA's outlook points to ENSO-neutral conditions persisting into 2026, curbing tropical cyclone intensification potential compared to recent El Niño-fueled extremes. USGS seismic monitoring shows no uptick in global earthquake frequency or magnitude trends, with historical U.S. billion-dollar disaster averages (around 8–10 annually per NOAA) not projecting anomalies. Recent climate model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF indicate gradual warming without abrupt event triggers, though uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere dynamics could shift odds ahead of 2026 forecast updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$187,053 交易量
$187,053 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$187,053 交易量
$187,053 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 70.5% probability of no major natural disaster in 2026, reflecting stable climatological and geological baselines amid absent signals of elevated risk. Following the hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—marked by Helene and Milton—NOAA's outlook points to ENSO-neutral conditions persisting into 2026, curbing tropical cyclone intensification potential compared to recent El Niño-fueled extremes. USGS seismic monitoring shows no uptick in global earthquake frequency or magnitude trends, with historical U.S. billion-dollar disaster averages (around 8–10 annually per NOAA) not projecting anomalies. Recent climate model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF indicate gradual warming without abrupt event triggers, though uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere dynamics could shift odds ahead of 2026 forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$187,053结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 70.5% probability of no major natural disaster in 2026, reflecting stable climatological and geological baselines amid absent signals of elevated risk. Following the hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—marked by Helene and Milton—NOAA's outlook points to ENSO-neutral conditions persisting into 2026, curbing tropical cyclone intensification potential compared to recent El Niño-fueled extremes. USGS seismic monitoring shows no uptick in global earthquake frequency or magnitude trends, with historical U.S. billion-dollar disaster averages (around 8–10 annually per NOAA) not projecting anomalies. Recent climate model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF indicate gradual warming without abrupt event triggers, though uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere dynamics could shift odds ahead of 2026 forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$187,053结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 70.5% probability of no major natural disaster in 2026, reflecting stable climatological and geological baselines amid absent signals of elevated risk. Following the hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—marked by Helene and Milton—NOAA's outlook points to ENSO-neutral conditions persisting into 2026, curbing tropical cyclone intensification potential compared to recent El Niño-fueled extremes. USGS seismic monitoring shows no uptick in global earthquake frequency or magnitude trends, with historical U.S. billion-dollar disaster averages (around 8–10 annually per NOAA) not projecting anomalies. Recent climate model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF indicate gradual warming without abrupt event triggers, though uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere dynamics could shift odds ahead of 2026 forecast updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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