Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of specific near-term forecasts signaling elevated risks from official monitoring agencies like NOAA, USGS, and WHO. Scientific assessments, including IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projections, indicate rising baseline frequencies of extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and seismic events due to anthropogenic climate change and ENSO variability, but single-year probabilities for qualifying "major" events—typically defined by thresholds like $10 billion+ economic losses, FEMA major declarations, or magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes—hover around 20-40% historically. Recent 2024 records of 28 U.S. billion-dollar disasters underscore annual variability, yet no anomalous tectonic activity, volcanic signals, or model consensus for 2026 outliers has emerged in the past week; upcoming seasonal outlooks in late 2025 will refine hurricane and drought risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$187,381 交易量
$187,381 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$187,381 交易量
$187,381 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of specific near-term forecasts signaling elevated risks from official monitoring agencies like NOAA, USGS, and WHO. Scientific assessments, including IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projections, indicate rising baseline frequencies of extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and seismic events due to anthropogenic climate change and ENSO variability, but single-year probabilities for qualifying "major" events—typically defined by thresholds like $10 billion+ economic losses, FEMA major declarations, or magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes—hover around 20-40% historically. Recent 2024 records of 28 U.S. billion-dollar disasters underscore annual variability, yet no anomalous tectonic activity, volcanic signals, or model consensus for 2026 outliers has emerged in the past week; upcoming seasonal outlooks in late 2025 will refine hurricane and drought risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$187,381结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of specific near-term forecasts signaling elevated risks from official monitoring agencies like NOAA, USGS, and WHO. Scientific assessments, including IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projections, indicate rising baseline frequencies of extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and seismic events due to anthropogenic climate change and ENSO variability, but single-year probabilities for qualifying "major" events—typically defined by thresholds like $10 billion+ economic losses, FEMA major declarations, or magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes—hover around 20-40% historically. Recent 2024 records of 28 U.S. billion-dollar disasters underscore annual variability, yet no anomalous tectonic activity, volcanic signals, or model consensus for 2026 outliers has emerged in the past week; upcoming seasonal outlooks in late 2025 will refine hurricane and drought risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$187,381结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of specific near-term forecasts signaling elevated risks from official monitoring agencies like NOAA, USGS, and WHO. Scientific assessments, including IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projections, indicate rising baseline frequencies of extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and seismic events due to anthropogenic climate change and ENSO variability, but single-year probabilities for qualifying "major" events—typically defined by thresholds like $10 billion+ economic losses, FEMA major declarations, or magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes—hover around 20-40% historically. Recent 2024 records of 28 U.S. billion-dollar disasters underscore annual variability, yet no anomalous tectonic activity, volcanic signals, or model consensus for 2026 outliers has emerged in the past week; upcoming seasonal outlooks in late 2025 will refine hurricane and drought risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题