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2026年美国麻疹病例?

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2026年美国麻疹病例?

Polymarket

$7,603,430 交易量

Polymarket

$7,603,430 交易量

↑2千

$40,123 交易量

99%

↑3千

$45,631 交易量

83%

↑4千

$149,107 交易量

50%

↑5千

$206,577 交易量

33%

↑7.5k

$160,132 交易量

14%

↑1万

$6,483,838 交易量

13%

↑1.25万

$343,513 交易量

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 16, 2026, the CDC reports 1,748 confirmed measles cases in the United States this year across 33 jurisdictions, with 94% outbreak-associated amid 19 new outbreaks—primarily in South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Arizona, and Florida—and 92% occurring in unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown vaccination status. This highly contagious paramyxovirus, with an R0 of 12–18, exploits declining MMR vaccination coverage below the 95% herd immunity threshold in many communities, fueled by international importations and sustained local transmission. Trader consensus reflects this surge, surpassing early-year totals from prior outbreaks; key variables include school reopenings and travel volumes. Watch for CDC's weekly case updates and Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR), plus any Pan American Health Organization reviews of U.S. elimination status, expected mid-year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
交易量
$7,603,430
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 16, 2026, the CDC reports 1,748 confirmed measles cases in the United States this year across 33 jurisdictions, with 94% outbreak-associated amid 19 new outbreaks—primarily in South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Arizona, and Florida—and 92% occurring in unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown vaccination status. This highly contagious paramyxovirus, with an R0 of 12–18, exploits declining MMR vaccination coverage below the 95% herd immunity threshold in many communities, fueled by international importations and sustained local transmission. Trader consensus reflects this surge, surpassing early-year totals from prior outbreaks; key variables include school reopenings and travel volumes. Watch for CDC's weekly case updates and Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR), plus any Pan American Health Organization reviews of U.S. elimination status, expected mid-year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
交易量
$7,603,430
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

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常见问题

"2026年美国麻疹病例?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"↑500",概率为 100%,其次是"↑1千",概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年美国麻疹病例?"已产生 $7.6 million 的总交易量(自Dec 1, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年美国麻疹病例?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年美国麻疹病例?"的当前领先者是"↑500",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"↑1千",概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年美国麻疹病例?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。