Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, driven by the agency's conservative use of this highest-tier notice, reserved for extreme risks like active Ebola outbreaks or widespread Zika transmission with no effective countermeasures. Currently, no destinations approach Level 4 thresholds; ongoing Clade I mpox outbreaks in Africa remain at Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" per CDC advisories, with a recent imported U.S. case swiftly contained through vaccination and contact tracing, showing no sustained transmission. Avian influenza H5N1 human cases in the U.S. are mild and isolated, lacking evidence of person-to-person spread. Absent new epidemiological surges or model projections indicating rapid escalation, traders anticipate no upgrade before year-end, with CDC updates monitored closely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, driven by the agency's conservative use of this highest-tier notice, reserved for extreme risks like active Ebola outbreaks or widespread Zika transmission with no effective countermeasures. Currently, no destinations approach Level 4 thresholds; ongoing Clade I mpox outbreaks in Africa remain at Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" per CDC advisories, with a recent imported U.S. case swiftly contained through vaccination and contact tracing, showing no sustained transmission. Avian influenza H5N1 human cases in the U.S. are mild and isolated, lacking evidence of person-to-person spread. Absent new epidemiological surges or model projections indicating rapid escalation, traders anticipate no upgrade before year-end, with CDC updates monitored closely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, driven by the agency's conservative use of this highest-tier notice, reserved for extreme risks like active Ebola outbreaks or widespread Zika transmission with no effective countermeasures. Currently, no destinations approach Level 4 thresholds; ongoing Clade I mpox outbreaks in Africa remain at Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" per CDC advisories, with a recent imported U.S. case swiftly contained through vaccination and contact tracing, showing no sustained transmission. Avian influenza H5N1 human cases in the U.S. are mild and isolated, lacking evidence of person-to-person spread. Absent new epidemiological surges or model projections indicating rapid escalation, traders anticipate no upgrade before year-end, with CDC updates monitored closely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, driven by the agency's conservative use of this highest-tier notice, reserved for extreme risks like active Ebola outbreaks or widespread Zika transmission with no effective countermeasures. Currently, no destinations approach Level 4 thresholds; ongoing Clade I mpox outbreaks in Africa remain at Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" per CDC advisories, with a recent imported U.S. case swiftly contained through vaccination and contact tracing, showing no sustained transmission. Avian influenza H5N1 human cases in the U.S. are mild and isolated, lacking evidence of person-to-person spread. Absent new epidemiological surges or model projections indicating rapid escalation, traders anticipate no upgrade before year-end, with CDC updates monitored closely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题