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世界·流行病

在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？

Market icon
世界·流行病

在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？

是

16% 概率
Polymarket

$234,975 交易量

是

16% 概率
Polymarket

$234,975 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern (VOC) before 2027, driven by widespread population immunity from updated vaccines and prior infections that favor milder SARS-CoV-2 evolution. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" subvariant, a highly mutated Omicron descendant detected in over 30 countries and 30+ U.S. states since late March 2026, has sparked monitoring but remains classified only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) by WHO and CDC, with no signs of heightened severity, hospitalizations, or substantial vaccine evasion. Low test positivity below 2% and stable transmission reinforce this positioning, though vigilant genomic surveillance continues ahead of potential fall vaccine updates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$234,975
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern (VOC) before 2027, driven by widespread population immunity from updated vaccines and prior infections that favor milder SARS-CoV-2 evolution. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" subvariant, a highly mutated Omicron descendant detected in over 30 countries and 30+ U.S. states since late March 2026, has sparked monitoring but remains classified only as a variant under monitoring (VUM) by WHO and CDC, with no signs of heightened severity, hospitalizations, or substantial vaccine evasion. Low test positivity below 2% and stable transmission reinforce this positioning, though vigilant genomic surveillance continues ahead of potential fall vaccine updates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$234,975
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2027年前会出现新的值得关注的新冠变异株吗？"，概率为 16%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 16¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 16%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？"已产生 $235K 的总交易量（自Dec 1, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？"的当前领先者是"2027年前会出现新的值得关注的新冠变异株吗？"，概率为 16%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 16%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"在2027年之前出现令人担忧的新型冠状病毒？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。